Increasingly alarmed that the security priorities of the United States are in other places, a group of European countries has been working silently in a plan to send troops to Ukraine to help enforce any future peace agreement with Russia .
Great Britain and France are at the forefront of the effort, although the details are still scarce.
The countries involved in the discussions are reluctant to give their hand and give an advantage to the Russian president Vladimir Putin if he agrees to negotiate the end of the war he launched three years ago.
What is clear is that the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, needs a guarantee that the security of his country will be safe until peace is strengthened.
The best protection would be the NATO membership that Ukraine has been promised for a long time, but the United States has taken that option from the table.
“I will not go into the particular capacities, but I accept that if there is peace, then there must be some type of security guarantee for Ukraine and the United Kingdom will play its role in that,” said Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer Caute Observations Thursday.
Europeans began to explore what type of force could be needed about a year ago, but the emergency feeling has grown in the midst of the concern that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, can pass on his heads, and possibly even of Ukraine, to ensure an agreement with Putin.
Many questions remain unanswered, but it stands out: what role, if any, could the United States play?
In December, after Trump was elected, but before assuming the position, a group of leaders and ministers curled up with Zelenskyy at the residence of the NATO general secretary Mark Rutte in Brussels.
They came from Great Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. The senior officials of the European Union also attended.
The conversations were based on an idea promoted by French president Emmanuel Macron in early 2024. At that time, his refusal to rule out troops in the field in Ukraine caused a protest, especially of the leaders of Germany and Poland.
Macron seemed isolated on the European stage, but his plan has gained traction since then.
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Even so, much about how force would be seen and who will participate will depend on the terms of any peace agreement, and more.
Italy has constitutional limits in the use of its forces. The Netherlands would need a green light of their Parliament, like Germany, whose position could evolve after the February 23 elections outside a new government. Poland is cautious, given persistent animals with Ukraine dating from World War II.
The makeup and the role of force will be dictated by the type of peace agreement that is reached.
If Russia and Ukraine can agree on the terms as negotiations advance, it is plausible that less security precautions and a minor force be needed.
But experts and officials warn that, as things are, Europeans must deploy a robust and considerable contingent, instead of a team of peace maintenance personnel such as the “blue helmets” of the United Nations.
“It has to be a real force (then) that the Russians know that if they ever tried it, they would be crushed. And it may be sure that Russia will evaluate it, ”said Ben Hodges, the former general command of the US Army.
“They violate each agreement. So, if we send a force there, they have to have aerial power, great terrestrial forces, drones, counter-feeds, air and defense. All that, ”he said.
“If they enter there with a lot of blue and rifles helmets, they will be crushed.”
The French general retired Dominique Trinquand, a former head of the Military Mission of France at the United Nations, agreed that the UN Peace Forces are more appropriate “for deployment in areas that are much more stable.”
“To start, setting up this operation with soldiers taken from all over the world would take approximately one year,” he said.
How big could force be?
The nature of the peace agreement will determine the size and location of the European contingent.
Zelenskyy has insisted on at least 100,000 to 150,000 troops. The media reports have speculated on a strong force of 30,000-40,000. Diplomats and officials have not confirmed any of the figures.
Ukraine also wants air support, not only boots on the ground.
What is clear is that Europeans would have difficulty gathering a large -scale force, and certainly could not do it quickly.
In an interview on Friday with the Financial Times, Macron said that the idea of displaying a great strength is “crazy.”
“We have to do appropriate, realistic, well thought out, measures and negotiated things,” he said.
The Secretary of Defense of the United States, Pete Hegseth, insisted this week on the “robust international supervision of the contact line”, a reference to the front line of approximately 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) long.
Europeans are reluctant, since that would require too many troops.
Almost everyone agrees that some type of “American support” is essential. The European Armed Forces have long trusted in the superior American logistics, air transport and other military capacities.
At NATO headquarters on Wednesday, Hegseth began to describe the terms under which the United States could accept a force that will help to provide Ukraine for “robust security guarantees to ensure that war does not begin again.”
“Any security guarantee must be backed by European and non -European troops,” Hegseth told almost 50 of Western Ukraine sponsors.
If they go to Ukraine, he said: “They should be deployed as part of a mission that is not from NATO.”
Putin has said that he launched the invasion in part because the NATO territory expanded too close to Russia's borders and that it is unlikely to accept any operation directed by the world's largest military organization.
Any European ally that participates would not benefit from NATO's collective security guarantee if they were attacked, Hegseth said. He stressed that “there will be no US troops deployed in Ukraine.”
He did not reveal what role the United States could play.
From the perspective of Ukraine, an operation only in Europe would simply work.
“Any security guarantee is impossible without Americans,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha on Thursday.