Washington – In the past six weeks, President Trump, Elon Musk's demolition man, has joined the German Civil Bureaucracy – frozen payments, dismissal of employees and deactivating entire agencies.
“We spent the weekend in feeding USAID in the wood chopper,” said Musk and referred to the Foreign Aid Agency.
And Trump cheered him on. “Elon does a great job, but I would like to see that he will be more aggressive,” the president posted in capital letters on social media.
But Trump and Musk plant political country mines in the government, which they both damage.
Many federal programs should react to disasters – or prevent them. Cut these programs and increase the risk of becoming small problems.
I asked the officials and management experts to create a list of possible side effects of Musk's lightning war. Here is an example:
Cutting the Food and Drug Administration could paralyze the agency's ability to trace diseases back into the source, an important step to stop spreading.
Cutting the centers for the control and prevention of diseases could slow down the ability of the agency to react to epidemics, such as the measles outbreak in Texas, who infected at least 146 people and killed a child, the first death of the United States since 2015.
The release of Federal Aviation Administration technicians, as the Trump administration did in January, could be less safe or only less reliable. Musk tweeted last week that the Air Control Communications System of the FAA “seriously endanger the safety of air travelers very quickly”. (But take it with a grain of salt; he promotes his Starlink system as a replacement.)
Cleaning the FBI and the CIA could weaken the efforts to prevent terrorist attacks. Kash Patel, director of FBI, said that he wanted to send every agent in his headquarters in Washington in the external offices to “be a police officer”. If he goes through, this would include many of the best specialists in combating terrorism.
Other possible effects of state chaos are less frightening, but would still disturb the life of the Americans.
If Musk's technicians accidentally insert mistakes in the government's financial payment systems, the social security controls could be interrupted, the Medicare services are disturbed, and the IRS tax reimbursements were delayed.
Officials also fear that confidential information could expire – not only the personal details of taxpayers, but also classified data on intelligence or defense programs.
Musk's layoffs will probably also generate a massive brain drain, talented managers from the public service and keep young people from joining. This will make the federal authorities less efficient, no longer.
Fortunately, none of the worst scenarios occurred. But each of them could cause a political explosion that would damage Trump's presidency.
The president may not recognize it, but he takes great risks – not only for the country, but also for his reputation with the public.
“We all love the idea of lowering the government's size,” said Donald F. Kettl, a scholar of public administration at the University of Maryland. “But the more you reduce the government's capacities, the more likely something will go wrong. And as soon as it affects people's lives – problems with social security tests, problems with Medicare, concerns about getting started with an airplane – it becomes a political problem. “
“Trump plays with non -exploded bombs,” said Elaine Kamarck from the Brooking's institution. “If you do this in so many places in the government – and by cutting with an ax instead of a scalpel – increase the possibility of a large F -up.”
According to Kamarck, only a very visible management error can sink a presidency. Think the hurricane Katrina under President George W. Bush, the Obamacare rollout under President Obama, the Afghan withdrawal under President Biden-or Trump's chaotic response to Covid-19 pandemy. Kamarck wrote a book about such disasters: “Why President fail.”
Trump brought a high risk behavior in the Oval Office to a new level, she said.
“Other presidents took hits because they missed the signals than problems developed,” she said. “This is the first president to create the problems himself.”
The public is already concerned. A Reuters/Ipsos survey published on February 20 showed that 58% of the Americans were concerned that the payments for social security and other federal benefits could be delayed by Musk's measures. A slightly larger number, 62%, stated that they did not support the freezing of federal grants and services that Musk's team imposed.
As Kamarck stated, presidents are often held responsible for disasters that they did not cause directly. “Obama did not design the Obamacare website that has crashed, but he set up the system that produced it,” she remarked.
Whether a president deserves it or not, politicians in the other party can rely on making him responsible. When a hidden FDA inspection led to a lack of baby formula in 2022, Republican MP Elise Stefanik from New York said that the main cause was “Joe Bidens failed”.
Trump critics have already warned that they will be responsible for the president when a catastrophe appears on his clock.
“If there is a terrorist attack in this country in the next four years and someone who is not qualified as a director of the FBI will be set up, then this blood will be in his hands,” said former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican, last year.
If one of the problems occurs on this list, it will only be natural for the public to ask whether Trump and Musk were responsible. It will also be a matter of course for reporters to examine whether Musk's actions played a role.
Trump could be tried to take responsibility, but it is too late for that. He has publicly cheered on Mousk's actions in the past six weeks and asked him to do more.
“It's his chaos now,” said Kamarck.
Let's hope that no disasters will be undertaken. But if one of them does this, Trump will learn the meaning of what the then Foreign Minister Colin L. Powell described the Pottery Barn rule: they break it, they own it.
A personal note: This is my last weekly column for the time. I am grateful to the many readers who gave me part of their time in the past 16 years of column – even and sometimes those who told me politely when I was wrong.