One of the more surprising foreign policy ideas proposed by the Trump team on the eve of taking power is military intervention in Mexico to combat drug cartels and potentially stop migrants heading to the United States.
The idea seemed so wild and provocative — attacking U.S. troops against a peaceful neighbor — that Mexican officials thought it was just Trump's bluster aimed at energizing his base.
But now they're wondering whether President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Ronald D. Johnson to be ambassador to Mexico, whether he's serious.
Johnson is both a former US military officer – a Green Beret – and a former CIA officer. And in his previous post as U.S. ambassador to El Salvador, Johnson was an enthusiastic supporter of Trump's policies in support of his president, Nayib Bukele, an authoritarian politician widely accused of human rights abuses in the massive crackdown on gangs and suppression of dissent.
Trump has already threatened Mexico with 25% tariffs on many of its exports to the US – including tomatoes, avocados, tequila and auto parts – unless President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration “does more” to stop migrants and fentanyl from entering the country to stop the US crossing its southern border with Mexico.
Many economists say such a measure would not only drive up prices for U.S. consumers but would also likely send the Mexican economy into free fall, which in turn could lead to more migration to the United States.
“Mexico faces enormous pressure,” Maureen Meyer, program vice president for the Washington Office for Latin America, said in an interview. The focus will be almost exclusively on immigration and law enforcement, she predicted, while “issues that concern the human rights community — reproductive rights, climate, democracy — will all fade into the background.”
She and others said that will likely be the case across Latin America as a Trump administration strengthens common cause with right-wing governments and parties in Argentina, Brazil and elsewhere, but have the greatest influence because of the 2,000-mile border with Mexico will The United States and its close economic and cultural ties.
Johnson, not to be confused with the Republican senator of the same name from Wisconsin, has lived in Florida since resigning as ambassador to El Salvador at the end of the first Trump administration. An Alabama native, he is married with four adult children and five grandchildren and spent time in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of his CIA duties. He also worked on counterinsurgency operations during El Salvador's civil war in the 1980s, when the U.S. supported the right-wing government against left-wing guerrillas.
“Ron will work closely with our great nominee for Secretary of State (Florida Senator) Marco Rubio to advance our nation's security and prosperity through a strong America First foreign policy,” Trump said on Truth Social as he announced the nomination announced this month.
“Together we will end migrant crime, stop the illegal flow of fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into our country, and MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN!” Trump wrote. This week, Trump added a plan to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorists, a move that could serve as authorization for the deployment of U.S. troops.
In his campaign platform, Trump said he would order the Pentagon to “use special forces, cyber warfare and other covert and overt actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure and operations.”
But it remains unclear how many of these steps Trump could take unilaterally. Terrorist designation typically requires action from other agencies, such as the State Department, and some members of Congress who support a tougher crackdown on Mexican drug trafficking are nonetheless reluctant to send U.S. troops into combat without approval from the Mexican government.
In Mexico, news of Johnson's nomination was greeted with caution, with many seeing it as a clear signal of the Trump administration's intended narrow focus.
Johnson's “résumé is the message,” said Jorge Castañeda, a former foreign minister in Mexico, in an essay for the news website Nexos. “Johnson has no experience in economic, commercial or financial matters. He’s not coming to Mexico for that.”
Johnson has extensive counterinsurgency experience.
Johnson will likely “call for a change in security strategy in Mexico,” said Mexican commentator León Krauze. “Trump likes spectacle and has long considered the possibility of providing his electorate with images of unilateral incursions into Mexican territory to arrest major drug lords, Hollywood-style.”
Many in Mexico are weary of U.S. intervention in security issues and blame the U.S. in part for supporting former President Felipe Calderon's military assault on drug cartels beginning in 2006, which unleashed devastating levels of violence that continue to this day. Still others, equally exhausted by high murder and kidnapping rates, have lost faith in Mexican law enforcement, often bought off by criminals, and have begun welcoming U.S. troops.
U.S.-Mexico security cooperation declined sharply during the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who accused U.S. forces of “abusive interference” in 2020 when former Mexican Defense Secretary Salvador Cienfuegos was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport on suspicion of drug trafficking .
López Obrador forced the Trump administration to return Cienfuegos to Mexico, where he was awarded a major military decoration. The damage strained U.S.-Mexico relations and hampered the work of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in Mexico.
Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, is also likely to be cautious about working with Trump.
After his initial threats of military attacks and tariffs, she called him at his Mar-a-Lago resort and then posted on USA like the drug war that began in 2006.
“We will work together… but without subordination,” she wrote. “We will always defend Mexico as a free, sovereign and independent country.”
Shifting away from the military-heavy approach of some of her predecessors could put Sheinbaum on a collision course with Trump and Johnson.
Sheinbaum “is not a Bukele guy,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat who specializes in Latin America and is highly critical of the Salvadoran leader. “She wants good relations with Mexico … but she has no plans to kiss Trump’s ring.”
Another important question is how Johnson would handle human rights issues in Mexico.
In El Salvador, where he was ambassador from 2019 to 2021, Johnson refrained from criticizing Bukele as the government arrested tens of thousands of people to curb gang violence. Some had gang affiliations, but many did not. According to human rights organizations, most were denied due process, innocent people, including children, were imprisoned, and hundreds were tortured and died in prison. The number of murders fell significantly, although by what percentage is disputed.
Johnson also failed to raise the alarm about Bukele's attempts to pack the country's Congress and Supreme Court with loyalists, in what critics called a power grab that undermined El Salvador's hard-fought democracy.
Bukele often spoke of his warm friendship with Johnson. The two were photographed sailing together in the Pacific off the coast of El Salvador. In June, long after Johnson resigned as ambassador, he attended Bukele's inauguration for a questionably legal second term alongside Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson and Rep. Matt Gaetz.
It is highly unlikely that Johnson will have a similar relationship with Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female president, a trained climate scientist and a representative of a left-wing political party.
Wilkinson reported from Washington and Linthicum from Mexico City. A special correspondent in San Salvador also contributed.