SEOUL – The morning after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law and then resigned, his political future quickly threatened to unravel.
Opposition MPs have filed insurrection charges against Yoon and are also seeking impeachment proceedings against him. Some in his own conservative People Power Party have called for his expulsion from the party.
People shout slogans and hold a sign reading “Stop” during a rally against President Yoon Suk-yeol at the National Assembly in Seoul on Wednesday.
(Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press)
The Korea Federation of Trade Unions, a key force in the mass protests that toppled corrupt conservative President Park Geun-hye in 2017, has called on its 1.1 million members to strike until Yoon resigns.
“Considering what happened yesterday, I don’t think he will resign voluntarily,” said Ha Sang-eung, a political scientist at Sogang University in Seoul. “But it will also be very difficult for him to persist and wait.”
Here's what could be next for the South Korean president.
Impeachment proceedings
On Wednesday afternoon – less than 17 hours after Yoon's short-lived declaration of martial law – opposition lawmakers proposed a motion to impeach him.
They argued that his order violated the Constitution, which says the president can only declare martial law during a war or crisis of equal severity. Yoon had tried to justify his decree by accusing lawmakers of paralyzing his government, sympathizing with North Korea and refusing to pass his budget.
Impeachment requires the support of at least two-thirds of the 300-member National Assembly – or 200 votes. The opposition coalition holds 192.
It is not out of the question that at least eight members of Yoon's own party could turn against him to pass the impeachment motion.
Late on Wednesday evening, the party officially refused to support the attempted coup. That may be because removing Yoon from office would effectively hand the presidency to liberal party leader Lee Jae-myung, whom conservatives also accuse of corruption.
On the other hand, up until the impeachment debacle, members of Yoon's party stood by him, while the opposition increasingly called for him to be ousted because of a multitude of scandals and corruption allegations that plagued his presidency. But 18 of them joined the opposition to overturn his martial law decree, and several have since said his actions could warrant impeachment.
Protesters hold placards reading “Resign Yoon Suk-yeol” as they attempt to march to the presidential office in Seoul after a candlelight vigil on Wednesday.
(Lee Jin-man/Associated Press)
If the impeachment motion is approved, Yoon's powers as president will be suspended while the Constitutional Court considers it – a process that could take up to 180 days and may be complicated by the fact that the nine-member court has three vacant seats.
At least six votes are needed to oust Yoon. So if the legislature doesn't quickly fill those seats, the decision would have to be made unanimously.
If the court ultimately upholds the request, the country will have 60 days to elect a new president.
Criminal riot charges
Three progressive parties that are part of the opposition coalition have filed a criminal complaint against Yoon, claiming that his declaration of martial law was an act of insurrection.
Insurrection is one of the few crimes not covered by presidential immunity. The punishment for sedition includes the death penalty or life imprisonment.
If indicted, Yoon would be the first sitting South Korean president to be charged in a criminal court while still in office.
Legal experts are divided over whether Yoon's actions meet the criteria for an insurrection, defined as a deliberate attempt to undermine the country's constitution.
In a social media post on Wednesday, Han In-sup, a criminal law professor at Seoul National University, argued that the attempt to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly was a clear example of such deliberate subversion.
“Anyone, police or military, who followed the President’s orders to disable the functioning of the National Assembly can be considered an accomplice to the insurrection,” he wrote.
On the other hand, Kim Sang-kyum, a law professor at Dongguk University in Seoul, said the argument is undermined by the fact that lawmakers ultimately managed to overrule Yoon through a vote.
It is unclear which law enforcement agency will investigate the case. The Supreme Prosecutor's Office has reportedly concluded that riots do not fall within its jurisdiction, making it likely that the police will take control.
An unlikely turn of events
Many in South Korea have called on Yoon to resign. But that seems unlikely, at least for now.
In a brief speech announcing the lifting of martial law, Yoon repeated his original accusation against lawmakers. He has made no further public statements or expressed any signs of regret.
Lee, the Liberal Party leader, sees this lack of remorse as a sign that Yoon is preparing for a second declaration of martial law.
A military vehicle is escorted by police officers as people try to block the outdoor area of the National Assembly in Seoul on Wednesday.
(Lee Jin-man/Associated Press)
“President Yoon appears to be in a state where he is incapable of normal and rational judgment,” he said at a rally outside the National Assembly building on Wednesday.
“I think they will correct their shortcomings and try again.”
Lee's claims can easily be interpreted as an outcry to drum up support for impeachment. However, experts said the possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
“It's still a very remote possibility, yes, but after what happened last night, I also wonder if it's as completely remote as we're tempted to believe,” said Ha, the political scientist.
For a second attempt to work, Yoon would need much more cooperation from the military – and a more plausible pretext, such as a conflict with North Korea.
“That would take us into the realm of novels,” Ha said. “But it is worth mentioning because yesterday’s incident was also nothing less than a novel.”