The fatal crash This week's flight of an Azerbaijani passenger plane – carrying suspected Russian air defense forces – brings into focus a little-noticed aspect of the war in Ukraine: a battle zone that extends deep into Russia.
Ukraine has for months used domestic drones to attack Russian targets hundreds of kilometers from the front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine, often targeting fuel depots and military airfields.
The Kremlin tends to downplay these attacks and has in the past offered unconvincing explanations for the massive explosions that sometimes result.
On Friday, Russian authorities admitted that Ukrainian drones targeted Grozny, the provincial capital of Russia's Chechen Republic, as an Azerbaijani airliner with 67 people on board attempted to land there on Wednesday.
Russia said nothing about whether its own air defenses were deployed at the time, but aviation experts said it was likely that a Russian surface-to-air projectile, possibly from a Pantsir missile system, sprayed the civilian aircraft with shrapnel, causing the decisive flight destroyed systems.
Vagif Mamishev lays flowers in memory of the victims of the plane crash at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in St. Petersburg, Russia.
(Dmitri Lovetsky / Associated Press)
The flight, which took off from the Azerbaijani capital Baku, crashed in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea from Chechnya. According to Azerbaijani officials, 38 people died and 29 survived with injuries.
Azerbaijan, unlike several other former Soviet republics, maintains friendly relations with Moscow. While she didn't want to blame Russia directly, she did demand an explanation. Russia reiterated on Friday that a full investigation was needed before it could comment on the causes of the crash.
Here is some background information on the deadly plane crash and its impact in the region and beyond:
What supports the theory that Russia was responsible?
On Friday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that early indications “certainly indicate that this jet was shot down by Russian air defense systems.” However, he refused to say more, citing the ongoing investigation.
Russia initially claimed the crash was caused by a collision with a flock of birds, with bad weather playing a role in the flight's diversion. But suspicions quickly arose, and pro-government media in Azerbaijan quoted officials as saying that a Russian missile was responsible. On Friday, Azerbaijani Government Minister Rashad Nabiyev publicly stated for the first time that there were preliminary indications that the downing of the plane was due to the external impact of a weapon.
Testimony from survivors, expert analysis and cell phone footage taken by passengers while the plane was in the last erratic moments of the flight indicate that the plane was hit as it was descending in dense fog. Experts said the Embraer 190's tail was riddled with holes that appeared to have come from outside, most likely from an air defense system.
Azerbaijan Airlines blamed the crash on unspecified “physical and technical interference.”
If Russia was responsible, will Russian President Vladimir Putin's government be held accountable?
That is unclear. Russia has never claimed responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile over territory in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In 2022, a Dutch court convicted in absentia two Russians and a Ukrainian supporter of Russia for their roles.
Azerbaijan cooperates with Russia in many matters, including military affairs. His investigators are participating in the crash investigation and have made it clear they want answers.
Why did Ukraine attack targets in Chechnya?
Ukraine, slowly but inexorably losing territory in the fight against invading Russian forces, has responded with drone strikes across much of Russia, including Moscow, the Kursk and Belgorod regions and even Kazan in the Tatarstan region 600 miles from the front line in Ukraine removed.
Almost as far away is the North Caucasus, where Chechnya is located, which has also previously been targeted by Ukraine. Troops under the command of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have been involved in the war since the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, and their forces have been involved in numerous atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.
Russia, which said Friday that an attack by Ukrainian drones on the Grozny area was underway at the time the plane crashed, did not confirm any successful Ukrainian strikes. But there are a number of National Guard and other military bases in the area. Ukraine typically does not admit its drone strikes inside Russia, but said Russia was responsible for shooting down the plane.
Will foreign airlines limit their flights to Russia?
This is already happening and marks a deepening of Russian isolation since the outbreak of war. Israeli airline El Al said it would suspend flights to Moscow following the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines, operator of the doomed flight, said it was halting flights to Grozny and nine other Russian cities. Kazakhstan's flagship airline Qazaq Air has suspended flights on a key route to the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.
What has the Biden administration said in the past about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia?
President Biden, now in his final weeks in office, recently allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles to penetrate deeper into Russia, an approval that President-elect Donald Trump has called “stupid” and that he may be withdrawn.
However, such attacks are independent of Ukraine's drone offensive, which is one of the relatively few tools Ukraine has at its disposal to keep Moscow off balance. Russian missiles have hit Ukrainian cities, including a massive attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev and other cities on Christmas Day.