Poor Donald Trump. Elected president twice just to clean up the economic mess the Democrats left him.
In 2016, he complained about the inheritance “A catastrophe” by Barack Obama. On Thursday, just four days before his second inauguration, he sent out a fundraising email for the millionth time, claiming, “During my first term, we made the economy stronger than anyone ever thought possible.” And then Joe Biden came along and destroyed it.”
That being said, no surprise, neither of Trump's claims are true.
Opinion columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes takes a critical look at the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
In fact, it was Obama and Biden who left the mess in their wake from former Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Trump himself. Obama took office after Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, called “the worst financial crisis in world history, including the Great Depression.” And four years ago, Biden confronted a nation stuck in a pandemic and economic emergency tightened from Trumps Answer. Even Trump's pre-pandemic economy, as good as it was, was far from it “the largest economy in the history of the world,” as he still claims. By various measures, it was either no better or not as good as it was under Obama.
As for the 2017 handover: “Trump inherits the Obama boom,” one said headline before his inauguration. And now he inherits even better. “Biden leaves behind a brilliant economy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. wrote as the year 2024 ended.
They sound expanded in October: “The economy is at full employment, nothing more, nothing less.” Wage growth is strong and, given large increases in productivity, is consistent with low and stable inflation. You couldn't paint a nicer picture of the labor market and the overall economy.” UBS Financial Services described this as the new “Roaring 20s” in a letter to clients on Friday.
And here's another expert opinion that might come in handy when listening to Trump's inaugural speech on Monday, should he choose to use it “American Carnage” like he did four years ago. Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and Stephen Henriques, a fellow there, recently wrote“As Trump shouts to the crowd, 'Are you doing better economically than you were four years ago?', the answer should be a resounding YES!”
The problem for Biden and for his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, who is denying the Democrats the 2024 election result, was that many voters answered this question with a resounding “NO!”
On the one hand, the pain of high inflation caused by the pandemic remains in the amounts Americans pay for food, goods and services. And yet it's worth identifying the facts as a basis to counter Trump's claims that he not only revived a devastated economy but also surpassed his own (non-existent) world record.
The latest good news came on Friday, when the International Monetary Fund forecast that the U.S. economy would grow faster this year than recently forecast due to employment and investment gains. The USA is stimulating the global economy. “The big story is the divergence between the US and the rest of the world,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.
But the fund's forecast was also consistent The worries of US economists that Trump's agenda – more deficit-financed tax cuts, sweeping deregulation, blanket tariffs, crackdown on immigration, etc Challenges to Fed Independence – could spur inflation again and further increase the country's already unsustainable debt burden.
In other words, Trump could destroy what isn't broken.
Inflation peaked at 9% at the midpoint of the Biden administration, and that, like every other issue, contributed to Trump's election. It is largely subsidedAnd the good thing: After his victory, Trump admitted that, contrary to his campaign boasts, there wasn't much he could do about inflation. “It's hard to bring things down once they're high,” he says said Time magazine.
What's worse is that his proposed tariffs – “my favorite word” says Trump – could increase costs for a typical family about $1,700 per year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And U.S. trading partners could increase those costs even further if they retaliate with tariffs on American products: “Of course we will,” said Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly. said CNN on Thursday.
Economic growth was 3.1% annualized in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported, making 2024 “another shock year in which the U.S. economy surprised on the upside.” Axios put it. Last month, the Fed cut interest rates for the third straight day but hinted at fewer rate cuts amid uncertainty about the future created by Trump. The Unemployment rate is 4.1%; it was 6.4% when Trump left office. Employment growth In Biden's last full month of December, 256,000 jobs were higher than expected, and Job offers exceeded the number of unemployed job seekers. In Trump's first three years as president, before the pandemic, the number of US presidential elections increased Jobs increased by almost 6.7 million; Biden's four-year total is almost 17 million. And Wage growthAlthough inflation was initially curbed, it is now greater than under Trump.
Despite Trump's “drill, baby, drill,” energy production is already at a record high, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The number of Americans without health insurance is at a level All time lowalthough Republican are unlikely to renew the tax credits that contributed to the reduction.
Biden used his Farewell speech Wednesday was a preview of Trump's inevitable attempts to take credit for good times – assuming they stay good. The outgoing president hailed the post-pandemic revival during his time in office, suggesting that infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductor investment legislation he passed would continue to bear fruit: “The seeds have been planted, they will grow and bloom for decades to come.” “
Zandi, the Moody's economist, expects the US economy to sustain to lead the world: “This, of course, assumes that there will be no more political mistakes in the future.” And then he added: “Hmmm…”