BEIRUT – Mideast observers might have been forgiven for thinking they were in a time machine as Syrian rebels stormed through the country's northwestern regions last week, seizing Aleppo in a stunning advance that reignited the country's long-simmering civil war.
Over the past seven days, the rebels – long seen as a fragmented, hopelessly vulnerable force – have driven Syrian army troops from their bases and positions, making gains in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces. The offensive poses the biggest threat since 2019 to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and his supporters in Iran and Russia.
After an initial retreat, loyalist forces regroup. Syrian army units and Iran-backed Iraqi militias are reportedly mobilizing against Hama to halt the opposition's advance. Meanwhile, Russian warplanes have carried out airstrikes on overrun districts of Aleppo and attacked rebel-held areas in the north. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group with a network of activists in the country, says more than 600 people have been killed in recent fighting, including more than 100 civilians.
The clashes have focused attention on a civil war that has largely disappeared from the headlines even though it never really ended.
Here's a look at what happened and what it could mean for different players.
Who is involved and why is it important?
The belligerents are the last survivors of Syria's deeply destructive civil war, which began in 2011 as another Arab Spring revolution when anti-government protesters demanded Assad's departure.
The government tried to crush them by unleashing troops and state-backed thugs in a wave of brutality. That sparked an armed insurgency that at its peak included dozens of armed groups across the country, including Gulf-backed Islamist militias, affiliates of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, as well as moderate groups backed by the U.S. and other Western countries.
But they could never fully unite. Assad fought back, calling on Iran and Tehran-backed armed groups, including Lebanon's Hezbollah, to reinforce his troops. In 2015, Russia sided with the government and turned the war in Assad's favor.
As the war stalled around 2019, more than half a million people were killed, millions more displaced or became refugees, and the country lay in ruins. But Assad controlled 70% of it.
The rest were balkanized under three rival governments: one in the northwestern province of Idlib, led by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group once linked to al-Qaeda (it split in 2016) and which continues as Terrorist group considered by USA; a coalition of Turkish-backed militias that – with Ankara's help – control part of the north; and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia that controls a U.S.-backed protectorate in the northeast of the country and where about 900 U.S. troops are stationed to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State.
This dizzying array of fighters and patrons means that what happens in Syria is unlikely to stay in Syria. A change in the country's government would have far-reaching implications for the entire region and would significantly anger the rivalry between the United States and Russia, not to mention Iran.
Why did the offensive start now?
The events in Syria cannot be separated from the consequences of the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel's subsequent war in Lebanon weakened Hezbollah and therefore Iran, both important allies of Assad. Russia is also distracted by its own war in Ukraine, meaning it has fewer forces it can commit to Assad's survival.
Israel, which occupies the Golan Heights claimed by Syria, also directs its anger at Iran's proxy forces. In recent months it has intensified its attacks on Iran-linked groups in Syria, further weakening Tehran's power.
All of this made it an opportune time for the opposition to attack.
What is happening on site?
The offensive is being led by HTS and some of its jihadist allies, as well as a Turkish-backed umbrella group called the Syrian National Army. They launched a two-pronged attack, capturing an area estimated at 170 square miles. This includes Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city and its economic hub, which the rebels first invaded in 2012 before being driven out four years later.
Now they are ready to split off parts of the center of the country. They have also captured significant amounts of weapons and supplies, including Syrian Army jets and helicopters.
On Wednesday, state media reported that the Syrian army had recaptured some areas in Hama and was planning a counterattack.
What does this mean for Assad and his allies?
Before this rebel resurgence, Assad's survival seemed a fait accompli. The war had hollowed out his government and army and forced him to pawn off whatever was left to Iran and Russia, but Assad still believed he was safe enough to wait out his opponents. He refused to negotiate with the opposition or Turkey and insisted that the US leave the country.
Assad's biggest loss may be the Syrians living under his rule. Many sided with him less out of genuine loyalty than out of fear of chaos, looting and persecution from the fragmented opposition. But army troops proved unable or unwilling to protect the local population, offering little resistance and resorting to airstrikes on Aleppo – measures unlikely to endear the government to the local population.
At the same time, many of the factions involved represent jihadist ideologies that most Syrians reject. But so far the opposition has dealt cautiously with the civilian population. Videos on social media show bearded fighters walking through the city's streets, reassuring Christians and other minorities of their safety. And activists say the fighters were disciplined for not harassing residents.
If the opposition manages to preserve its gains, maintain cohesion and restore its standing among Syrians, Assad could be forced to make serious concessions in exchange for his survival.
One idea that has been floated in recent days is that Assad is turning away from Moscow and Tehran in return for an easing of sanctions. For Iran, this would mean the loss of an important hub in the logistics train with which it supplies Hezbollah. It would also further weaken the so-called Axis of Resistance, the Iran-led constellation of governments and paramilitary factions arrayed against the United States and Israel.
Russia, which has a presence on Syria's Mediterranean coast, would lose a reliable customer in the region, not to mention an air base in the Middle East and its navy's only warm-water port.
For now, neither Assad nor his allies show any signs of backing down. In statements and interviews, government officials insist the army is attacking rebels they call terrorists, and Iranian envoys have vowed to fully support Assad. Russia has sent its warplanes to attack rebel-held areas in Idlib and Aleppo.
What does Turkey get out of it?
Turkey has supported the opposition since 2011 and has taken in most of the refugees fleeing the fighting. She originally insisted that Assad must go, but nearly 14 years later, the bigger priority for Turkish President Recep Tayyep Erdogan is sending refugees back to their homeland and destroying the SDF, the Kurdish militia that he says is aligned with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, banned in Ankara. or PKK.
In the conquest of Aleppo, the rebels are now surrounding several neighborhoods controlled by the SDF and promising the Kurdish fighters safe passage to northeast Syria. It is unclear whether they did so.
A now successful victory against the Kurds should be an advantage for Turkey when Trump takes office next month. During his first term, Trump repeatedly tried to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, condemning their deployment there as a costly but useless foreign intervention. A Kurdish defeat could convince him that staying is no longer tenable.
Is this a victory for the USA and Israel?
The heads of state and government of both countries would be happy to see Assad leave. But if he stays on the condition of limiting Iranian and Russian influence, that is still a victory because Iran would not be able to supply weapons to Hezbollah or threaten Israel through Syria, and it would become an important market lose for its sanctioned economy. Russia's loss in Syria would allow the US a freer hand in the region.
Still, the war in Syria has proven to be a cross-border problem in the past, with the U.S. leading a coalition of countries in a years-long campaign to destroy the extremist group following the resurgence of the Islamic State. The conflicts there also triggered a wave of refugees that changed Europe's political landscape and gave strength to anti-immigrant right-wing parties. Iraq and Jordan are facing destabilization, adding to their suffering given the turmoil of the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
The chaos could also affect Israel. So far, Assad has kept his troops out of the fight against Israel in the war with Hamas and Hezbollah. He has also offered little resistance to Israel's repeated attacks on Iranian assets in the country. There are no guarantees that this will continue.