WASHINGTON – On the snowy sidewalk of a dreary residential street in Moscow, blood, soot and the mangled remains of an electric scooter marked the spot where a top Russian general was murdered – signaling a potentially dangerous new phase of the war in Ukraine.
Just over a month before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, the bombing that killed Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov and his assistant on Tuesday was widely blamed on Ukraine, which stopped short of formally claiming responsibility but tacitly acknowledged the role be known to security services.
Kirillov, 54, was the highest-ranking Russian serviceman to die off the battlefield since Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine began nearly three years ago. While the U.S. president-elect vows to quickly end the fighting, analysts say both sides are seeking to deliver heavy blows to gain maximum leverage in upcoming negotiations.
“This is a new frightening phase in this war,” said former Ukrainian minister Tymofiy Mylovanov wrote on Xdescribing the killing as part of an apparent retaliation campaign in which Russia also targeted Ukrainian military officials.
Russian state media quoted investigators as saying that the early morning explosion that killed Kirillov and his assistant – a suspected terrorist attack – was triggered by an explosive device planted in a scooter parked near the entrance to an apartment building .
Ukrainian officials had made clear that they viewed Kirillov as a legitimate target. Just a day earlier, authorities in Kiev had brought charges against the general in absentia, accusing him of ordering the use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine.
The Biden administration had also linked Kirillov to Russia's use of the chemical warfare agent chloropicrin – a poison gas from the trenches of World War I – against Ukrainian troops on the front in the south and east of the country.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which Great Britain, Canada and New Zealand participated at various points, Sanctions imposed about Moscow's alleged violation of the three-decade-old Chemical Weapons Convention.
In his capacity as head of Russia's anti-radioactive, biological and chemical defense forces, the general had often publicly denied international accusations against his accusers, claiming that the Ukrainian military had used toxic materials and planned attacks using radioactive materials. Ukraine and its supporters denied these claims.
As at many key points in the war, Russia announced harsh retaliation for the killing. Kremlin Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev promised that there would be “immediate retaliation” against senior Ukrainian figures. The Russian UN mission said it would take the matter to the Security Council, of which it is a permanent member.
Some analysts pointed out that the killing was likely a prelude to talks in which Russia and Ukraine will desperately try to avoid negotiating from a perceived position of weakness.
“I think it's a significant escalation,” analyst Ian Bremmer said of the killing, noting Kirillov's rank and importance. In an analysis posted online For his GZERO Media, Bremmer said that the escalating steps taken by both sides in the conflict probably reflected the belief that “negotiations will take place soon.”
The assassination of Kirillov was particularly daring and high-profile, but not an unprecedented attack. Last week, Moscow was also reportedly the scene of the apparent targeted killing of a top engineer on its cruise missiles, which were used to sow chaos and death in Ukrainian cities.
These attacks on civilian targets have increased in pace and intensity in recent weeks, often targeting Ukraine's power grid as cold weather increases its influence.
On the battlefield, the numerically and outgunned Ukrainian armed forces are increasingly under pressure. In a bloody war of attrition on the Eastern Front, Russian forces have steadily gained ground.
In addition, some of the Russian territory that Ukraine seized in a surprise incursion in late summer has shrunk as Russia deploys North Korean troops to step up the push to retake ground in the Kursk region.
Trump's victory in November sparked fear and terror in Ukraine, where people had closely followed his campaign comments decrying billions of dollars in crucial Western aid to Kiev.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly turned his attention to a kind of public relations campaign to convince Trump that there were clear benefits – from personal prestige to potential access to Ukraine's natural resources – to capitulating to Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid.
The president-elect and Zelensky spoke in Paris this month, a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron as both U.S. and Ukrainian leaders attended the ceremonial reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in 2019 had been destroyed by fire.
Even before he took office, Trump caused excitement in Ukraine and among U.S. allies because of his ability to withhold crucial support.
Ukraine considered it a significant breakthrough last month when President Biden reversed course after months of public pleas from Zelensky and gave Ukraine the green light to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to attack military targets deeper in Russian territory. On Monday, at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump called that decision “stupid” and suggested it be reversed.
Hours after the targeted bomb blast targeting Kirillov in Moscow, Zelensky made no mention of the general's assassination in a remote address to a regional alliance summit. However, he referred to the expectation that negotiations could take place soon.
“We all understand that next year could be the year this war ends – we have to make sure it happens,” the Ukrainian leader said. But he added: “We must establish peace in a way that Putin can no longer break.”