When he came to power in 2015, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was hailed as a progressive icon, a charismatic leftist with movie star looks who promised to reform elections, fight climate change and legalize marijuana. He quickly became one of the world's most recognizable political figures, known for his pioneering liberal policies – and for taking selfies with adoring fans.
“He was considered this Canadian rock star,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
Former US President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walk together in Ottawa in 2016.
(Paul Chiasson/AP)
Nine years later, Trudeau is deeply unpopular at home and is fighting to keep his job despite growing calls for him to resign.
Voters blame Trudeau for Canada's sluggish economy, housing crisis and near-record immigration levels. For months, polls have shown that he is highly unlikely to lead his Liberal Party to victory in the next election, which takes place on October 20 next year.
The election of Donald Trump last month has made things even worse for Trudeau.
Conservatives and even members of his own Liberal Party insist he is not doing enough against Trump, who has threatened to impose high tariffs on imports from Canada and who has trolled Trudeau in recent weeks by repeatedly referring to him as “governor.” of a country designated 51st American state.
This week, one of Trudeau's staunchest allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, abruptly resigned because she disagreed with Trudeau's stance on Trump.
In a sharp formulation letter Freeland announced her resignation, accusing Trudeau of engaging in “costly political games” rather than directly confronting the U.S. leader and putting his own interests above the interests of Canadians.
Freeland's resignation, part of a recent exodus of cabinet members, has left Trudeau's government reeling and sparked new calls for his resignation from members of his caucus and other allied parties.
At the same time, Canada's three opposition parties are demanding that Trudeau call new elections.
“Everything is getting out of control,” Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre said on Monday. “It simply cannot continue like this.”
The crisis facing Trudeau highlights the geopolitical chaos Trump has wrought since his election, weeks before his official return to the White House.
And it speaks to the same headwinds and economic fears that doomed Democrats in the recent US elections.
“Everything that seemed bright and refreshing about Trudeau in 2015 now looks old and tired,” Bratt said.
Trudeau is the eldest son of the late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who led Canada for 15 years starting in 1968.
The younger Trudeau worked as a teacher before entering politics. He was just 43 when he toppled Stephen Harper's Conservative government by mobilizing legions of young voters energized by his promise to bring back social liberalism.
As prime minister, Trudeau legalized marijuana and introduced a national carbon tax that officials say will reduce the country's emissions by a third by the end of this decade. He also became a prominent liberal counterweight to Trump, who was first elected in 2016.
Former US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chat before a NATO meeting in England in 2019.
(Frank Augstein/Associated Press)
After Trump banned travel to the United States from several Muslim-majority countries in 2017, Trudeau announced that Canada's doors were open.
“To all those fleeing persecution, terror and war: Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith,” he said wrote on the social media platform now known as X. “Diversity is our strength.”
Trudeau was widely praised for leading the country through a successful renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, a process that Freeland led.
But COVID-19 presented a challenge for Trudeau as the country's economic recovery was slower than that of the United States.
Recently, Trudeau came under fire for allowing near-record numbers of migrants into Canada during and after the pandemic to stimulate economic growth.
The influx of temporary workers, international students and refugees helped the country's population rise from 38 million to 41 million in three years. Critics say it has increased existing competition for housing, health care and education.
Trudeau's approval ratings continued to fall. Then Trump won re-election.
The new U.S. leader announced he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office unless the countries curb the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States.
Although many analysts believe Trump could use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic before returning to the White House, the issue has caused widespread concern in Canada.
It has also sparked a debate over which strategy would be the wisest for Canada to deal with the combative American leader: push back or take a more conciliatory approach.
Trudeau appears to have chosen the second option. Last month, he flew to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to dine with the president-elect. Then, in an apparent attempt to appease the new U.S. leader, Trudeau's government announced a plan to beef up security along the U.S. border.
Freeland, on the other hand, has advocated for a much tougher approach to Trump, more in line with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's tough response.
“A disagreement over how to respond to the U.S. is at the heart of the reasons for Freeland’s exit,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.
Freeland's resignation on Monday, when she was scheduled to give a key budget speech, “really shook the government,” Sands said. “I think this could hasten the end of the Trudeau government.”
Analysts say there are several possible consequences to the current political crisis.
Trudeau could be forced by his own party to step down as leader of the Liberals, which would choose a new leader. Freeland is considered a possible choice. The Liberals would have to call an election at some point, but they hope a new leader at the helm would help reduce their likely losses to the Conservatives, who polls show have a large lead.
Alternatively, Trudeau could call a new election and lead the Liberals themselves. This is what he says he plans to do.
Or the opposition parties in parliament could initiate a vote of no confidence, which would trigger new elections. But their attempts to do this have so far failed.
Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor at Carleton University, said it appears Trudeau's days are numbered. “There is a lot of pessimism and people are angry with the government,” he said.
And Trump calling Canada the 51st country doesn't help.
“It’s fair to say that Mr. Trump has a knack for finding people’s vulnerabilities,” Malloy said. “And he directly addressed the most important problem in Canada, which is that the United States simply views it as the 51st state.”
Times Washington bureau staff writer Tracy Wilkinson contributed to this report.