Washington – Even before the first phase is completed, the fragile 15-month ceasefire deal in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has an increasingly long chance of lasting or even reaching phase two.
The deal – finalized last year by the Biden administration, negotiated for months with Qatar and Egypt and finally crossing the finish line last week with the help of Trump officials – freed the Israeli bombardment of the coastal enclave, the first three of several Dozen Israelis free Hamas hostages, releasing 90 of thousands of Palestinians held by Israel.
Up to 30 more Israeli hostages and several hundred Palestinians are expected to be freed in this first phase of the ceasefire, before a second phase is due to begin in six weeks. Negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict should begin at this point.
However, in the second phase there are growing signs that even the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza would never happen. Here are some of the reasons.
Trump will be more hands-off than Biden
Trump helped push the ceasefire agreement before his inauguration. He said he wanted the conflict off his plate.
But on his first day in office, Trump signaled a hands-off approach to the conflict. “It's not our war, it's their war,” he told reporters.
Significantly, he said he was “not confident” that the ceasefire would last.
Without strong U.S. pressure to maintain ceasefire talks, the likelihood of the second phase always looks dark.
Trump is also unabashedly Israeli, making it harder for the US to mediate. Instead of trying to stop Israel from using violence, Trump has appeared to encourage it in the past. Last year he called on Netanyahu to “do what it takes” to end the conflict.
His administrative appointees are also passionate supporters of Israel who have openly questioned the Palestinians' right to sovereignty.
His choice to be ambassador to Israel is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian who has said that as a Palestinian there is “no such thing” and opposes the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.
And on Tuesday, Trump's pick for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), testified on the entire occupied West Bank, Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, much of which is claimed by the Palestinians.
Where Trump's interest in the Middle East is strong, however, is in Saudi Arabia. He urgently wants to broker a deal that would open diplomatic relations – and lucrative business deals – between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Saudi Arabia is now demanding that a deal be conditioned on a “credible path” for the Palestinians to establish an independent state, something Trump has long avoided.
Israel under pressure at home to continue attacking Gaza
Netanyahu is under pressure from right-wing members of his coalition government to resume the bombing of Gaza until Hamas is destroyed. Some said they had received assurances from Netanyahu that Israeli troops and warplanes would once again take off in and over Gaza after the first phase of the ceasefire.
Once the hostages are released in the first phase, Netanyahu may have strong political incentives to resume fighting. The next releases will come on Saturday, when Hamas indicated that four more female prisoners would be handed over.
Netanyahu, who now has the narrowest of majorities in the Knesset or Parliament, must guard against defections because the collapse of his government leaves him vulnerable to violence against him because of the ongoing war.
This week, Netanyahu stepped up Israeli attacks on the occupied West Bank. Those operations, which have already claimed scores of Palestinian lives, came after Trump revoked the Biden administration's sanctions against radical Jewish settlers who have pushed through the West Bank, destroying property and killing a number of Palestinian residents.
Not only has Netanyahu refused to designate an eventual independent Palestinian state, he repeatedly ignored pleas from U.S. and Arab mediators last year to plan a postwar Gaza Strip system.
In recent days, Netanyahu has also taken pains to publicly minimize any role in the governance of the Palestinian Authority, which has limited decision-making powers in the occupied West Bank.
Pressure on Netanyahu also comes from moderate Israelis who generally support a ceasefire.
Some say they agree that the Palestinian prisoner will release an extremely high price. The 90 Palestinian detainees and prisoners freed on Sunday were women and minors, but the impending releases of around 1,900 more are expected to include adult men who carried out deadly attacks on Israeli civilians.
Hamas was still alive, but weakened
When the Israeli hostages were released on Sunday, they were surrounded by masked, armed Hamas militants, in green headbands and chanting slogans, marching through streets no longer under Israeli bombardment. That infuriated many Israelis and undermined Netanyahu's stated goals of destroying the militant faction.
Hamas has viewed the ceasefire as a victory and shows no signs of seeking a lasting relationship with Israel.
“Gaza will rise again with its great people and resilience to rebuild what the occupation destroyed and continue on the path of steadfastness until the occupation is defeated,” Hamas said in a statement after the ceasefire.
The militant faction, which has controlled Gaza for nearly two decades, may have finally agreed to sign the ceasefire that the last chance for a break would have to come under the Biden administration. While it releases hostages, it loses its sole bargaining chips.
If the first phase is completed as planned, Hamas is believed to still be holding approximately 60 Israeli hostages, both dead and alive.
Hamas can certainly continue to fight, but from a weakened position. It has lost some international friends and financial backers, and some of its weapons pipelines have been cut. Iran, for example, is reeling from Israeli and US attacks while its economic stabs. Under Western pressure, Qatar, long the headquarters of Hamas' political leadership, has cut some of its ties.
The conflict in Gaza brought the Palestinian problem – the long struggle for independence after decades of Israeli occupation and repression – to the world stage. However, most of the sympathies were directed at Palestinian civilians and not at Hamas.
However, Hamas found an excellent recruiting tool in the vast destruction Israel has inflicted on the Gaza Strip. Outgoing US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Hamas was able to recruit almost as many fighters as it had lost.
Writer Nabih Bulos in Beirut contributed to this report.