China's population fell last year for the third year in a row, its government said Friday, pointing to new demographic challenges for the world's second most populous nation, which now faces both an aging population and an emerging shortage of people in working age.
China's population was 1.408 million at the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year.
The figures announced by the government in Beijing follow global trends, but especially in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea and other nations have seen their birth rates fall. Three years ago, China joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe among other nations whose populations are declining.
In many cases, the reasons are similar: The rising cost of living is causing young people to postpone or rule out marriage and childbearing as they pursue higher education and careers. While people are living longer, that's not enough to keep up with the rate of new births.
Countries like China, which allow very little immigration, are especially at risk.
China has long been among the world's most populous nations, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population that thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north. After the end of World War II and the rise to power of the Communist Party in 1949, large families re-emerged and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward that sought to revolutionize agriculture. and the industry and Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later.
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After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, communist bureaucrats became concerned that the country's population was outgrowing their ability to feed themselves and began implementing a draconian “one-child policy.” Although it was never law, women had to request permission to have a child and violators could face late-term abortions and forced contraceptive procedures, massive fines and the possibility of their child being deprived of an identification number, making them would effectively make them non-citizens. .
Rural China, where son preference was especially strong and two children were apparently allowed, became the focus of the government's efforts, with women forced to provide proof that they were menstruating and buildings adorned with slogans such as ” have fewer children, have better.” children.”
The government attempted to eradicate selective abortion of girls, but because abortions were legal and readily available, those who operated illicit ultrasound machines enjoyed a thriving business.
That has been the biggest factor in China's unequal sex ratio, with up to millions more boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China's army of bachelors. Friday's report said the gender imbalance was 104.34 men for every 100 women, although independent groups believe the imbalance is considerably higher.
More troubling for the government was the drastic drop in the birth rate: China's total population fell for the first time in decades in 2023 and China was narrowly surpassed by India as the world's most populous nation that same year. The rapid aging of the population, the decline in the workforce, the lack of consumer markets and migration abroad are putting the system under severe pressure.
As spending on military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China's already fragile social security system is faltering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to contribute to the underfunded pension system.
More than a fifth of the population is now 60 years old or older, and the official figure is 310.3 million or 22% of the total population. By 2035, this figure is expected to exceed 30%, sparking debate over changes to the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. Meanwhile, with fewer students, some empty schools and kindergartens are being transformed into senior care centers.
These developments are lending some credence to the aphorism that China, now the world's second-largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “get old before it gets rich.”
Government incentives, including cash payments for having up to three children and financial help with housing costs, have only had temporary effects.
Meanwhile, China continued its transition to an urban society, with 10 million more people migrating to cities, with an urbanization rate of 67%, almost a percentage point higher than the previous year.
© 2025 The Canadian Press