MEXICO CITY — In recent days, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced her country's largest-ever fentanyl seizure and highlighted multiple crackdowns on migrants heading to the United States.
She spoke to the press, but her most important audience is US President-elect Donald Trump.
Her campaign is widely seen as a desperate attempt to undermine his promise to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods when he takes office next month.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum gives a news conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on October 2, a day after taking office.
(Fernando Llano/Associated Press)
“The timing is not a coincidence,” said Eduardo Guerrero, a security analyst in Mexico City. “President Sheinbaum’s agenda has radically changed with Trump’s triumph and the threats he made against Mexico.”
There is great concern here about the potentially devastating impact of tariffs on an already struggling economy that relies heavily on trade. The United States accounts for more than 80% of Mexican exports.
“They obviously weren't prepared for Trump to win the way he won, and for Trump to say the things he's said since the election,” said Jorge Castañeda, a former secretary of state. “So they do what they can to catch up, a little spontaneously. To make Trump and Americans in general feel like she’s trying to do things to make Trump happy.”
A phone conversation between the two leaders didn't seem to help. An elated Trump reported on social media after the call that Sheinbaum had “agreed to stop migration through Mexico” and committed to “effectively closing our southern border.”
Sheinbaum disputed this, saying Mexico's position was not to close borders but to “build bridges between governments and communities.”
A boy looks through a border wall into California from Tijuana on November 26.
(Gregory Bull/Associated Press)
Mexican officials have enlisted U.S. companies, politicians and others to try to dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs.
“It is better for Mexico to know in advance about the tariff risk,” said Sofía Ramírez, head of the economic think tank México, ¿cómo vamos? “At least that way they can formulate an answer.”
Officials even launched a high-profile offensive against contraband from Asia, raiding a mall in downtown Mexico City and seizing thousands of toys and other products – an operation widely seen as a preemptive strike to stop Trump from punishing Mexico for that it acts as an ally conduit for Chinese goods to the United States.
Sheinbaum “recognized that China is a big deal for Trump, and if it wants to stay on his good side, Mexico needs to do more to prevent China from using Mexico as a back door to enter the U.S. market,” Denise said Dresser. Columnist and political scientist at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico.
The president denied that she was simply trying to appease Trump. Mexicans, she recently told reporters, “can rest assured that we will never bow our heads or be ashamed.”
Sheinbaum must walk a fine line between her voters, who don't want to see Mexico humiliated — or bankrupt — and the unpredictable, impetuous Trump. Few expect Sheinbaum, a scientist with a stern demeanor, to forge the kind of relationship with Trump that was enjoyed by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a folksy, old-school populist who heaped praise on Trump at every opportunity.
“She's not going to campaign for Trump in the Rose Garden,” Dresser said, recalling López Obrador's visit to the Trump White House in 2020. “He's not going to call her,”My friend Claudia,' or sit and drink tequilas with her.
Trump sees tariffs as a way to pressure countries to do what he wants. When he made his threat against Mexico in a post on his social media platform last month, he wrote: “The tariff will remain in effect until drugs, especially fentanyl, and all illegal immigrants stop this invasion of our country!”
It didn't take long for Sheinbaum to begin seeing success in these areas.
On Dec. 4 — nine days after the tariff threat — Sheinbaum announced the seizure of more than a ton of fentanyl in two raids in Sinaloa state, a notorious cartel bastion and production hub for the synthetic opioid.
Members of the Mexican National Guard conduct vehicle inspections at a new checkpoint at the San Ysidro port of entry in Tijuana on November 29.
(Carlos Moreno/Getty Images)
The haul could have produced 20 million doses of fentanyl and netted organized crime more than $400 million, she told reporters.
She said the operation had been planned for some time, countering Mexican media claims that it was staged to win over the Trump team.
According to experts, a complete closure of the fentanyl trade is probably not possible. Smugglers transport precursor chemicals from China to Mexico, where the opioid is manufactured in clandestine laboratories before being transported across the U.S. border.
It is unclear whether Trump will be willing to compromise.
“We don't really know what Trump wants other than these blanket statements about 'stop the drugs,'” Castañeda said. “Does he want to send more DEA people? More military? Hunting kingpins again? Or look for supplies of precursor chemicals from China?”
Migrants heading north walk along a highway in Chiapas state on Oct. 22, hoping to eventually reach the United States.
(Edgar H. Clemente/Associated Press)
Regarding migration, Sheinbaum said that the refugee caravans heading north were being “fighted” – Mexican authorities had broken up the groups in southern Mexico.
Mexico is detaining more than 5,000 migrants daily, almost 50% more than in the final months of his predecessor's term. This year, Mexico has reported more than 1.2 million migrant apprehensions – a record for Mexico that even surpasses the total number of apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol along the U.S.-Mexico border during the same period.
Will that be enough to appease Trump? Nobody knows.
“Both governments are, in a sense, condemned to negotiate with each other,” Castañeda said. “There isn't much choice. She can't make Trump go away and he can't make her go away. So they’ll get along eventually.”
Times special correspondent Cecilia Sanchez Vidal contributed to this report.