WASHINGTON – As Donald Trump takes the oath of office for the second time on Monday, the world is watching with a mix of fascination, curiosity, elation or fear – and a sense that this time people outside the United States may have a better idea of what is what one can expect from his presidency.
Even before Inauguration Day, the two and a half months of transition since Trump defeated his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, had produced stunning developments on the global stage.
Some of America's closest traditional allies were shaken by the president-elect's rhetoric, reminiscent of an expansive 19th-century ethos and spread through modern social media. Populist figures, already emboldened by a tidal wave of anti-establishment votes, have found a warm welcome in Trump's circle.
And autocratic governments expect a far more transactional relationship with Washington, unencumbered by diplomatic discourses about human rights or the rule of law.
Trump may be the most volatile American president in decades, but there is an element of predictability in that: that almost every long-standing international norm may well fall by the wayside. The strongly felt fragility of a rules-based order after World War II is its own kind of roadmap, say some veteran observers.
Many foreign leaders are “no longer struggling to figure out what to do,” said Daniel Fried, who served as a U.S. Foreign Service official for nearly four decades.
“They know they have to plan for every eventuality,” said Fried, now at the Atlantic Council think tank. “They have a better sense this time, even if it still shakes them.”
Trump's acrimonious resignation in the final days before taking office almost certainly led to the conclusion of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the devastating war in Gaza. The deal crafted by the Biden administration was scheduled to take effect the day before Trump's inauguration.
Even though Trump has walked back his claim that he would end fighting in Ukraine within 24 hours, the feeling among all parties is that Trump's presidency will change the course of Russia's nearly three-year-old all-out invasion of Ukraine's sovereign neighbor .
Then there is China. The uproar sparked by the US Supreme Court's ruling that hugely popular short-video app TikTok must cut ties with its Chinese parent company or face a US ban is likely to provide some insight into future dealings between Washington and Beijing over accelerating technology, trade and military bring rivalries.
“China could be a big surprise” under Trump, said Michael Cox, professor emeritus of international relations at the London School of Economics. One factor to watch closely is the “huge” business interests in China of the world's richest man, Elon Musk, a prominent but relatively new figure in Trump's orbit, he said.
Musk, the SpaceX and Tesla billionaire, also has Trump's apparent imprimatur, as he has shocked close allies like Germany and the United Kingdom with verbal broadsides against their elected leaders and greatly increased support for domestic far-right forces.
With Germany's election just over a month away, Trump has raised no objections as Musk has used his social media platform X to tout the far-right Alternative for Germany party as a national savior. Chancellor Olaf Scholz again described Musk's election campaign on Friday as “completely unacceptable.”
In Britain, in a reversal of the decades-old “special relationship”, Musk has called for the release of notorious jailed anti-Muslim extremist Tommy Robinson and loudly declared that Prime Minister Keir Starmer belongs in prison. Trump met everyone with silence.
“This all sends a very worrying message to Europe – to people who are friendly to the United States,” said Cox, who also works at the British think tank Chatham House.
Expected inaugural attendees include Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and firebrand British politician Nigel Farage, underscoring the populist tone of the new government. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had endorsed Trump as a “man of peace,” was invited but was unable to attend, Hungarian media reported.
As Trump, Musk and their team did in Europe, they have already signaled that they will approach Latin America and where they will find their favor. Even before his election victory, Trump courted Latin American leaders who were accused of human rights violations and antipathy toward democratic norms.
Argentine President Javier Milei, who styled himself like Trump and vowed to use a “chainsaw” (which he often used at rallies) against his country’s government and institutions, was invited to the inauguration. This also applies to El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, who describes himself as the coolest dictator in the world and managed to win a second term despite a constitutional ban. Bukele has also adopted Bitcoin as the national currency, profits in crypto circles and is said to be admired by Musk.
Trump allies have sought to undermine democratic left-wing governments in Latin America such as Guatemala and Colombia and are likely to reverse President Biden's last-minute diplomatic concessions to Cuba, which included removing the country from the U.S. list of sponsors of the International terrorism advocates viewed this as unfair and damaging to the struggling Cuban economy.
Mexico and Panama will be particularly upset by Trump.
Their presidents, Claudia Sheinbaum and José Raúl Mulino, respectively, are looking for a way to appease some of his demands, such as slowing illegal immigration from or through their countries, while opposing ideas they see as a threat to national sovereignty .
Trump has considered declaring Mexican drug cartels foreign terrorist organizations, a designation that could be used to attack them militarily on Mexican territory. He has also said he wants to regain control of the Panama Canal, a vital waterway once controlled by the U.S. as an American colony on foreign soil but handed over to Panama in 1977 in a treaty signed by then-President Carter. Trump declined to rule out the military seizing the canal.
Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), has not embraced some of Trump's most unorthodox views, instead largely supporting an “America First” agenda and stating that any policy decision must ask three questions: “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Or does it make America wealthier?”
In the Middle East, the dramatic events surrounding the breakthrough of the ceasefire between Israel and the militant group Hamas prompted “split-screen” comparisons to Ronald Reagan's inauguration in 1981, when U.S. hostages held in Iran shortly after the new leader took office were released after taking the oath of office. The presidency of Reagan's predecessor – Jimmy Carter, who died on December 29 – was largely overshadowed by the long effort to free her.
With the first hostage set to be released on Sunday, Trump quickly highlighted his own role in securing the deal. The pact, announced on Wednesday and finally ratified by the Israeli cabinet early Saturday, calls for a gradual handover of the remaining prisoners, alive and dead, seized from the Hamas militants who advanced into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and about 1,200 people killed.
The Israeli bombing of Gaza over the next 15 months has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, left the territory in ruins and displaced about nine-tenths of its more than two million residents, according to Gaza health authorities.
“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could only come about as a result of our historic victory in November, as it signaled to the world that my administration would seek peace and negotiate agreements to ensure the security of all Americans and our allies,” the President said – elect wrote in a social media post as the breakthrough was formalized.
Biden, for his part, acknowledged the unprecedented cooperation between Trump's team and his own diplomats in the final effort to reach a deal, but couldn't hold back when a reporter asked him last week whether the president-elect was right to receive full credit.
“Is this a joke?” he asked.
Many people in Greenland thought it was a joke when Trump, during his first presidency, talked about acquiring the vast island territory that is part of Denmark. But he has revisited the idea, refusing to rule out using military force to take control “for national security purposes.”
Europe was quick to point out that Trump would attack European borders and a NATO ally.
“We have been working together (with the US) for 80 years and … have a lot to offer with which to cooperate,” Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede said, “but we also want to make it clear: we do not want to be Americans.” “
Fried warned at the Atlantic Council that “it is not good for the United States when other countries hedge their bets.” You never know, he said, when the United States will need its allies.
“Personally, I would take it both literally and seriously,” said Belgium-based analyst Guntram Wolff, alluding to the popular political phrase from Trump's first presidential campaign as an observer of the difference between how his supporters and opponents interpret his more provocative statements analyzed.
But he acknowledged that the world would just have to wait and see what four more years of Trump would bring.
“He has an agenda; He makes a strong case,” said Wolff, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels think tank. “And he was elected.”