There is still much President Biden can do to strengthen Ukraine's security and our own before he leaves office in January. The need for greater US aid is evident from reports from the war zone.
Last month, Russia's all-out war against Ukraine passed the 1,000-day mark. And just as it has since day one of its invasion, over the past week the Russian military has relentlessly bombed not only Ukrainian army positions along the 600-mile front, but also homes, clinics, schools, power plants and factories across Ukraine. You've seen footage of the utter destruction in Gaza from bombing raids: imagine it on the scale of Texas and you'll get a sense of everyday life for Ukrainians. The attacks keep coming. In just one night last week, Russia launched a barrage of attacks 188 missiles and drones targeted 17 regions of Ukraine.
The Kremlin also continues to engage in disinformation. They completely misrepresented this nighttime airstrike as a “response” to new Western aid and made exaggerated claims about Russia's experimental Oreshnik ballistic missile, which struck Ukraine's largest industrial city, Dnipro, a few days earlier.
And Ukraine reports an increase in the number of prisoners of war murdered by Russians – Dozens of cases have been reported in recent monthsincluding 16 who were said to have been shot immediately after their surrender.
Although Ukrainian forces have often been undermanned and outgunned, with U.S. and European support they have been able to fend off most infantry attacks over the past week – 150 to 220 battles daily. While they ceded some territory here and there, they inflicted heavy losses on Russia.
The Ukrainian people are unbending. They defy destruction and trauma and continue to value and defend what Russia threatens to take away: About 85% of 418 respondents in my October tracking survey with the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine said democracy and free expression are important to them. More than 80% said Ukraine would win the war. Around 90% said they would not compromise on Ukraine's independence.
But change and uncertainty are in the air. In November, Russia gained territory in Ukraine faster than at any time since the first months of its full-scale invasion. Ukraine did not receive enough support from its allies to take action Russia's devastating guided glide bombs.
In contrast, Russia received unprecedented help from North Korea: an estimated 5 million artillery shells, 100 ballistic missiles and 11,000 soldiers were sent into combat to counter Ukraine's diversionary advance into Russia's Kursk province. And the Kremlin is also seeking further action elsewhere, including against the Houthis in Yemen and the Taliban, with Moscow now poised to remove that group from its terrorist list. Russia's economy is at war and has been growing more than twice as fast as the euro area last year despite Western sanctions.
In other words, Ukraine needs much more help to protect its sovereignty and resist Russian expansionism.
Biden's latest authorization that missiles supplied by the USA are to be used against targets in Russia has already allowed Ukraine to severely damage an air base, an army base, a command center, a powerful anti-aircraft complex, and a large refinery and fuel depot that supported Russia's offensive. The first approved Shipments of US anti-personnel landmines will help beleaguered Ukrainian forces maintain control of key strongholds.
The next priority for the U.S. in the remainder of Biden's term is to get the most out of the $6 billion Congress has approved to support Ukraine.
If the United States provided Ukraine with about half of the 500 newly manufactured missiles in the American arsenal, Kiev could deliver deadly blows to most of the 200 military facilities within range that directly support the Russian offensive. (So far, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with only 50 of these long-range missiles, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems.)
With three additional ones Air defense systems, so-called Patriot batteries, Ukraine can close weaknesses in its air defense and even target Russian glide bombers again.
If only the US would supply Ukraine with one of these High altitude air defense terminal batteries that we keep in reserve for emergency operations – the same technology sent to Israel to fend off Iranian missiles — Kiev could end Moscow's long-range ballistic missile threat.
Such strong actions taken in the next two months would also help the new Trump administration protect America's strategic interests for years to come. The president-elect has already appointed Keith Kellogg, a retired Army general, to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Kellogg's plan is to use threats and inducements to get both sides to agree to a ceasefire along the current front lines. A hardened soldier and clear-eyed realist with a lifetime of experience in great power conflicts, the general will likely quickly learn that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be satisfied with controlling a fifth of Ukraine; The Kremlin wants to persuade Ukraine and the West to surrender. That would make Donald Trump look weak. After defeating a new administration so publicly, reaching agreement with any nation on any issue will become much more costly and difficult in Trump's remaining four years.
To avoid this fiasco, Trump and his team must find bolder and more effective ways to support Ukraine until Moscow has no choice but to accept a negotiated settlement with Ukraine's security guarantees. Even if Trump's priority is to end the war quickly, doing so by pressuring Ukraine by cutting aid would be dangerous; The only hope for a lasting peace that preserves U.S. prestige would be to put pressure on Russia.
Biden has a key role to play at this crucial time. The more boldly he can support Kiev while still in office, the better Ukraine's chances of surviving as a free nation and the better America's chances of remaining the reigning superpower.
Mikhail Alexseev, professor of international relations at San Diego State University, is author of Without Warning: Threat Assessment, Intelligence, and Global Struggle and principal investigator of the National Science Foundation-funded War, Democracy and Society project.