President-elect Donald Trump has made clear his intention to “America first” approach to foreign policy in his second term – and Mexico seems solid be at the tip of the spear.
While many of Trump's predecessors also“realistic” strategy – that is, in a country where relative power is at the forefront of international relations and diplomatic success is judged by how it benefits one's own nation – the new president has apparently shown no willingness to think about it the pain his plans would inflict on target countries or what reactions this will provoke.
Trump's proposed policy threatens Mexico in three ways: First, its goal Deport millions of migrants would place enormous pressure on Mexico's economy and society as the country sought to absorb the influx. This would be exacerbated by his second threat, a sharp one Increase in tariffswhich could destroy the important export sector of the Mexican economy. And thirdly, Trump has floated the idea of using it US military power for confrontation Drug traffickers within Mexico – which would be a direct encroachment on Mexican sovereignty and could lead to more violence on both sides of the border.
But Mexico has several options to roll back Trump by imposing heavy costs on U.S. interests.
In fact, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already done this signaled her how she could counter Trump's politics. The most obvious tools are ending drug and immigration cooperation and imposing our own tariffs. It could also revoke some decades-old tax and work privileges benefited US companies within Mexico. Finally, it could play the “China card” – that is, Mexico could turn to Washington’s main economic rival as Beijing does so, given deteriorating U.S.-Mexico relations try to exert more influence throughout Latin America.
Sheinbaum said she wants to avoid a trade warbut Trump's threats have still prompted them to talk about how a trade war would begin. This trade war and other costs Sheinbaum might impose on U.S. investors would also likely create an opposition coalition within the U.S
If Trump scraps trade deals and imposes tariffs, he could convince investors to spend their next dollar in the United States. However, if Mexico imposes tariffs, corporate taxes, etc Investment Restrictionswhat would happen to the investors' farms and factories already in Mexico?
Past experience suggests that any disruption to supply chains or U.S. export markets would create strong resistance in the economy. as analysts and corporate groups I already recognized it.
Trump is not immune to pressure from US companies. During his first term in office successfully resisted Trump's attempt to close the borderHe argued that slowing the flow of immigrants also means slowing down trucks loaded with goods.
On the issue of the border and immigration, Trump has done so Threats madeSheinbaum emphasized the importance of collaboration.
Currently, the Mexican government is investing significant resources in policing its own southern border, not to mention dealing with the many would-be migrants congregating in its northern cities.
Mexico could demand more assistance from the United States in exchange for this work, plus the costs associated with rejoining the United States An estimated 4 million Mexicans who are currently in the United States without proper documentation.
Trump's repeated promises to deport illegal immigrants would require other types of cooperation, such as processing border crossings, and Mexico could slow that process. Mexico has already signaled this withhold processing of non-Mexicans.
The two countries have long worked together to combat the illegal drug trade – but tensions have arisen here too. For example, towards the end of Trump's first term, a The Mexican general was arrested in the USA for drug offenses. After a diplomatic turmoil, he was returned to Mexico and released.
In late November, Sheinbaum revealed that she and Trump had spoken about security cooperation “within our sovereignty.” But Trump's campaign rhetoric seemed less concerned with Mexico's sovereignty and floated the idea of sending troops to the border or even use within Mexico to counteract drug traffickers. This would clearly anger Mexico and would have consequences that go far beyond the willingness to cooperate on drug trafficking issues.
One country that stands to benefit from a deterioration in U.S.-Mexico relations is China – a problem that Mexico could exploit.
China is now the first or second trading partner of almost all Latin American countries, including Mexico. The value of trade between the United States and Mexico is over $100 billion per yearbut the growth of Chinese imports to Mexico were somewhat limited from Rules of origin in the North American Free Trade Agreement and its Trump-era successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
A trade war between the U.S. and Mexico could weaken or end any incentive to keep out Chinese goods. In addition, tariffs are narrowing the doors to the United States hostile rhetoricChina's auto parts and financial services would clearly become even more attractive to Mexican companies. In short, a US-Mexico trade war would expand Beijing's access to a market on the US border.
In summary, if Trump follows through on his threats, there will be costs for consumers and businesses and new opportunities for China. This is likely to produce a coalition of industries, investors and consumers, as well as foreign policy experts focused on China – many of whom supported parts of Trump's campaign.
Scott Morgenstern is a professor of political science and former director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Pittsburgh. This article was created in collaboration with the conversation.