After half a century of dictatorial rule by the Assad family, Bashar al-Assad has fled and Syrians can finally celebrate the end of a terrible regime that gassed, starved and murdered its own people. Syrians have suffered terribly for many years, especially those who have been tortured or disappeared by Assad's henchmen, and the country's people need and deserve American support now. But the new rebel-led government in Damascus has its own sordid history, and U.S. officials must carefully consider how to deal with the new regime, starting with a number of priority U.S. interests.
Long before the lightning events that suddenly brought the end of the Assad regime this week, the United Nations General Assembly ordered an investigation into the use of systematic torture and ill-treatment in its prisons. He was released just as the regime collapsed report it's hard to read, but this Pictures who have come out of the infamous Sednaya Prison since its doors were opened are infinitely worse.
There is no doubt that the region is already better off without Assad. Car-to-car traffic has clogged the roads into Damascus as refugees from neighboring countries stream home after years of forced displacement. Arab states are expected to see almost immediate relief from the recent drug epidemic, which has been fueled by the Assad regime's production and regional distribution of drugs an infamous amphetamine-like substance called Captagon.
The fall of the Assad regime is also strategically advantageous for the US and its allies in the region by removing a linchpin of Iran's “Axis of Resistance.” This axis was a three-legged stool – based on Iran, Syria and the Lebanon-based group Hezbollah – and it can no longer stand. For many years, Syria served as a land bridge through which Iran supplied weapons to Hezbollah. Without Syria, it will be far more difficult for Iran to rearm these fighters. And without Iranian weapons and funding, the Lebanese terrorist group faces the enormous challenge of reconstituting itself after being devastated by a series of Israeli attacks.
Israel has taken advantage of this vulnerable moment in Syria to destroy large numbers of weapons before they fall into new hands and can be used against Israel or others. Since Saturday, the Israeli Air Force and Navy have hit more than 350 strategic targets across the countrydestroying an estimated 70% of Syria's military capabilities.
The rebel alliance now seizing power in Syria is led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, a designated terrorist group that emerged from al-Qaeda and was initially sent by al-Qaeda to Iraq, which later became the Islamic State. While Hayat Tahrir al Sham has fought both the Islamic State and an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, it remains a State Department-designated jihadist organization. In 2020, the US added the group to its list of entities of particular concern under the International Religious Freedom Act “for its involvement particularly serious violations freedom of religion” in the areas of Syria it controls. According to another State Department reportthe group that now leads the rebels “committed a variety of abuses, including murders, kidnappings, physical abuse and the recruitment or use of child soldiers.”
Just last year, courts in the United States did this sentenced people of financing Terrorism for raising funds for Hayat Tahrir al Sham. And two al-Qaeda affiliates, one in North Africa and one in the Sahel, have already issued one joint statement They are calling on their fellow jihadists to rebuild Syria as a “Sunni entity” governed by Sharia law. Al-Qaeda is branching out Yemen And South Asia also made statements supporting the offensive to depose Assad.
Meanwhile, social media is awash with images of jihadist rebels in Syria describing their victory there as a first, not a final, step. In one a group of rebels appear and proclaim: “We have entered the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and chanted Allah Akbar, and with the help of Allah we will also enter the Al-Aqsa Mosque and we will also enter the Mosque of Prophet Muhammad and the Kaaba in Mecca”, where we are referring to sites in Jerusalem and Saudi Arabia.
The US should be careful in lifting sanctions against the Syrian state, the Hayat Tahrir al Sham group and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Such softening should only occur in return for clear results. However, Washington should immediately issue licenses that enable comprehensive humanitarian support to Syria. Removal from the list of known terrorist groups should be earned, not given, especially when dealing with a jihadist group in power.
This week Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken designed what the political transition process in Syria must look like for the US to recognize a future Syrian government: respecting the rights of minorities, facilitating humanitarian assistance to all those in need, preventing the use of Syria as a base for terrorism, preventing Syria from becoming a threat to to represent its neighbors and to ensure that all stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons are secured and safely destroyed.
Other important U.S. interests implied but not explicitly mentioned in this statement include protecting the U.S.'s Kurdish allies in northeastern Syria and allowing them to continue to maintain internment camps for Islamic State fighters, as well as ensuring , that Syria is actually breaking with Iran and Hezbollah, so that Syria can no longer serve as a land bridge to arm Lebanese fighters. To protect these interests, it will be critical for the new U.S. administration to maintain its small but influential U.S. military presence in Syria, which then-President Trump tried to eliminate twice during his first term.
U.S. officials have reason to proceed cautiously. On the one hand, Hayat Tahrir al Sham has a proven seven-year history of governance in the parts of Syria under his control, leading the so-called “Syrian Salvation Government” with several ministries governing the area under its control. And although the group has used suicide bombers in its attacks in the past, it has not used such tactics in recent years.
U.S. officials must monitor not only how the new ruling rebel alliance governs now, but also how it governs in the future. For many, today's Syria is very reminiscent of Iran after the 1979 revolution. At that time, many groups of Iranians who opposed the Shah – communists, secularists, Islamists – supported Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution. The new government in Tehran spoke of respecting minority rights and at times even included secularists in the government. Then the theocracy seized power and Iran became a sponsor of terrorism for decades that continues to this day.
In the U.S., officials in both the outgoing and incoming presidential administrations should celebrate the fall of the Assad dictatorship, but future U.S. Syria policy should be based not on trusting the words of new Syrian officials but on verifying their actions.
Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow and director of the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.