A full moon earlier this month blocked Mars from the perspective. Historically, some have taken this as a sign of peace as Mars was the “planet of war and conflict” in many cultures, from ancient China to ancient Rome ancient Rome “, and the conflicts” that from ancient Rome to ancient Rome “was that it was accordingly Science author Rebecca Boyle.
At least there can be hope in heaven for President Trump's nearly two-year-old promise to end the war in Ukraine. “I'll do this in 24 hours,” he told a CNN City hall In May 2023. It doubled during a president debate In September 2024: “I'll take it off before I even become president.” But then the bravado behind those boastful campaigns promises to gather steam this month. Trumps candidate As Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia, U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg pushed back the goalpost for peace “100 days” in one interviewfrom January 20th to May 20th.
Whatever deadline you set, ending the war in Ukraine is the Trump administration's first test. Unfortunately, the new president learns that there is no peace agreement with the drive-by site. Regardless of the hope that the solar system may offer, all real wars stem from hard ground truths.
The hard ground truth in Ukraine is that General Dwight D. Eisenhower once put it: “Sometimes it's just the dirty job of killing until some cracks appear on one side or the other.” Currently, the Russians are far closer on cracking than the Ukrainians. While the Russians can take more pain, they don't want to take more; Ukrainians have limited resources but are willing to take more pain because they fight for their country.
Russia is currently holding 18% the sovereign territory of Ukraine (terrain the size of Ohio). Ukraine has reconquered 54% of what the Russians thought at some point. Three years of fighting have cost Ukraine more than 400,000 dead and injured. Russia's tribute is more than 700,000 dead and injured.
These costs are high on both sides and yet sustainable. Ukrainians have absorbed approximately 11,000 total injuries per month. The Russians, around 20,000 victims per month. The strategist Edward Luttwak has appreciated“The number of male Ukrainians reaching military age annually is at least 235,000 or 20,000 per month”; But “every month more than 100,000 Russian men reach military age.” This war will therefore involve more than half of Ukraine's young men and a fifth of Russia's (aside from the significant contribution of women to the war effort, particularly for Ukraine).
But that makes war. It's about living for goals. It is painful and terrible and crude, but this is also the grim arithmetic by which great wars are won.
Every Ukrainian basic trainee is taught such mathematics that everyone “must take advantage of reported. While this remarkable prize does not guarantee victory, it can have a devastating impact over time. This is why most wars are won by outlasting the other side, as historian Cathal Nolan has pointed out.
The Russians have admitted they were outlasted. Last fall they recruited North Korean troops alongside the convicts, mercenaries and poor children from Siberia who make up the rest of their remaining army. The murder payments alone cost the Russian government 30 billion US dollars Over a period of one year. Um 40% of Russia's national budget Now it's off to the military.
Morality is with Ukraine. Your units wear patches that read “Ukraine or death.” Your generals express: “We will fight the Russians to the death, down to the last Ukrainian.” Your soldiers, unarmed and about to be executed, Smoking cigarettes and screaming: “Glory of Ukraine.” And they know that they are fighting for their children against an opponent who stole well over 19,000 Ukrainian children Since the war started.
How could the US persuade Ukraine to end the war now? Why should Kyiv make a deal? This is the first problem for Trump and Kellogg. While the Russians may be getting closer to caves, it is not clear that the pain on either side has become unbearable. That means bringing parties to the table motivated by desire rather than necessity, making meaningful concessions nearly impossible.
If the United States could agree to the two nations, what would the ideal peace agreement look like? Two American interests are at stake, sitting in tension with each other like a massive foreign policy. Maximizing Ukrainian independence to stand for international borders is at one end compared to maximizing detente with Russia to hedge against the growing threat from China.
A lasting balance is key. Giving Ukraine what it wants would provoke Russia and hand it further to the Chinese. Giving Russia too much would encourage it to go again, this time to Moldova, Georgia, perhaps on the NATO periphery. So the only real deal is a balanced peace that neither encourages nor provokes. This is probably something that freezes terrain with a creative security guarantee from NATO-by-other-name that ensures the survival and current sovereignty of Ukraine – perhaps stationing the troops of major European nations in Ukraine to create a “human tripwire” to create, as America has done in South Korea for many decades.
Peace is hard because war is hard. Wars don't end on schedule, for Inauguration Day, or when you say so. Thinking that would be like hoping to bring peace by howling at the moon.
ML Cavanaugh is co-founder of the Modern War Institute at West Point and author of the upcoming book “Best Scar Wins: How You Can Be More Than You Were Before.” @Mlcavanaugh