Our poll of presidential experts a year ago noted that Joe Biden ranked 14th among presidents, ahead of such influential CEOs as Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan. At the time, many expressed surprise, if not skepticism, that the third edition of our Presidential Greatness Project had placed Biden in the top third of the country's presidents.
While President Biden has helped lead the nation out of the COVID-19 pandemic while also delivering a number of legislative achievements, many credited him with restoring key norms in the Oval Office after Donald Trump's turbulent tenure, which experts said ranked last. But the story wasn't over yet, and the verdict was provisional.
In the months following our poll's release, voters and pundits alike learned much more about Biden's deterioration with age, particularly evident in his disastrous performance in the debate against Trump in June. Weeks later, Biden dropped out of the race and handed over the reins Vice President Kamala Harriswho would later be decisively defeated by Trump.
Even as Biden's administration shifted the focus on his legacy in the months since he left the race, his presidency has become increasingly fraught. Evidence of his diminished performance was accumulating; he pardoned his son Hunter, thereby undermining his claim to the restoration of upright adherence to the rule of law; and Trump and his fellow Republicans prepared to return to power and undo much of what Biden had accomplished.
The presidential legacy is a uniquely American phenomenon. It seems that from the moment a president leaves the inaugural podium, talk begins about his future legacy and the impact of that event or decision. These legacies remain contested even after they leave office, sometimes for many decades: consider the ongoing reassessment of presidents like Wilson, Andrew Jackson, and Ulysses S. Grant, all of whom have been out of office for well over a century.
The presidents themselves are well aware of this. Barack Obama once remarked that he and his presidential predecessors were all part of America's long history and that each president was just trying to get his or her point right. Of course, presidents don't write their paragraphs alone. Journalists, historians, and the allies and enemies of individual presidents play an important role in the way each president is remembered and appreciated.
Proponents of a particular president often point to an administration's significant achievements as evidence of a great legacy. Biden's defenders argue, for example, that the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act make him a significant president, at least in the domestic policy area. But for each of these successes there are blemishes such as Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, his fight against inflation and the chaotic situation at the southern border.
The reality is that while most modern presidents can point to significant policy achievements, most of these initiatives are not among the most significant parts of the story about them. Legacies are as much about the political performance of presidents, their relationship with the American people, the success of their parties, and the historical memory of the time during their time in office—the presidential mood, as our students would say.
When we think about how presidents are remembered, their greatest political achievements are often not at the forefront. Gerald Ford is remembered not for his administration's fight against inflation or for signing campaign finance reforms, but for pardoning his predecessor, Richard Nixon. Jimmy Carter's presidency is more often defined by his uncomfortable speech than by the 13 days he spent at Camp David brokering a lasting peace between Israel and Egypt.
A look at Biden's younger predecessors is revealing. Bill Clinton's paragraph is largely about deepening partisan polarization and his impeachment, while George W. Bush's, accompanied by the Florida narrative and Hurricane Katrina, focuses on the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq concentrated. Barack Obama's paragraph so far has focused on his historic role as the first African-American president and his successful advocacy for the Affordable Care Act, as well as the rise of the Tea Party and further polarization. Trump's first term was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachments and the January 6 insurrection, but now that he will be the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms, his paragraph is only half written .
As we think about Biden's legacy, it's more likely that his ranking in our most recent poll will be his high point. Future assessments must take into account not only new information about his decline, but also the extent to which he and his aides concealed it, the administration's ineffective handling of the Gaza war, and the president's low standing among the American people at the end of his term in office and the precarious situation in which he is leaving his party.
A year ago, Biden still seemed to have a chance of re-election and played a credible role as the defender of American democracy. Now we know that his sales are more concerned with the difference between what he promised – to restore some level of normality after Trump and serve as a bridge to a new generation of leadership – and what he delivered: the second Trump government will deal with it.
Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Justin Vaughn is an associate professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University.