I don't say that often, but we give Donald Trump the advantage of doubt.
While Trump's notorious Oval Office meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky last week, the Ukrainian president was determined to make one point above all: that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not trustworthy. Again and again Zelensky noticed that Putin has a long record of promises. “He broke his own signature twenty times,” said Zelensky in chunky English. “Twenty -five times he vomits.”
Zelensky kept returning to this point because he knows that Putin's paper promises are worthless. Putin has made it very clear that he would like to reclaim as much of the ancient Soviet empire as possible, which is why he entered Georgia in 2008, which Belarus turned into a Vassallstate, refused to remove troops from Moldova from Moldova in 2014 and to start a complete invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Russia's borders end up nowhere. “”
Trump's reaction to Zelensky? Putin broke no promise when Trump was president.
This is the key to Trump's overall war. If he were president, he always says that the war would never have happened.
Let us give Trump the advantage of doubt and assume that Putin would never violate an agreement mediated by Trump while Trump is in office.
So? National security works with a longer timeline than a single presidency.
One reason why Germany was built into NATO and the European Union ensured that it would never threaten the continent or the world again. Another should ensure that the Soviet Empire would not expand to Europe, beyond the Eastern European countries that occupied it at the end of the Second World War. And the time frame of this alliance was not only as long as Harry Truman or German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer remained in office. The time frame was as long as necessary.
Similarly, our European allies strive to adapt to an international order in which America can no longer support because they fear an upcoming invasion in Poland or the Baltic States. What you are concerned about is in the long term.
In fact, Putin may love a deal that allows him to keep a lot of what he stolen – and the Trump government has already said that it is good – and prepare for another stab when she gets the entire Ukraine and maybe a few years more under control.
Trump doesn't take care of the street. He wants to be able to have peace at short notice. When Putin enters up to Ukraine on January 20, 2029, it is not his problem. In fact, he even likes it: he could point out that Putin would never penetrate the country while Trump was president.
So Trump thinks about politics, international and domestic. He cares less about serious, permanent guidelines than what he can recognize immediately.
A popular theory for Trump's aversion to Zelensky is that the Ukrainian leader did not help him cloud Joe Biden's political prospects in 2019, which became Trump's first office. Trump just wanted the Ukrainians to say that bidges were examined for corruption and had the rest managed. As an incentive, he threatened to hold up military help to Ukraine, even though it had been acquired by the congress.
Trump's second office survey was partly a similar objection to civil servants from the Ministry of Justice: “Just say, the choice was corrupt and left the rest of me and the Republican Congress.” In both cases, the topic of conversation was more important for Trump than the truth.
This is the context of his maneuvering to “end” the war in Ukraine. He would like to be able to say that he delivered peace; He didn't care if it was a long -lasting peace. He only wants the topic of conversation.
His foreign policy team understands this, which is why administrative officers make fun of the idea of granting the Ukraine actual security guarantees. “Everyone says security guarantees to secure peace,” Foreign Minister Marco Rubio said on Sunday about ABC News' this week. “You have to have peace first.”
Rubio Elf understood How deterrent works. As he Set it out In 2015, “endangered nations still depends on the fact that we are deterring aggression from their larger neighbors. Suppressed peoples still turn their eyes to our shores and wonder if we hear their screams and ask ourselves if we notice their suffering. “
He now advocates a backward concept of deterrent because he wants to help Trump to secure a topic of conversation, not a permanent peace.
Zelensky is not an obstacle to peace; He is an obstacle to a topic of conversation. And Trump and society hate him for it.
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Ideas expressed in the piece
- The article argues that Donald Trump's approach to the Ukraine War prioritates short-term political victories against long-term stability and emphasizes his conviction that Vladimir Putin would not violate Trump's presidency against Trump's presidency. This perspective formulates Trump's focus on immediate ceasefire claims as a transaction tactic in order to strengthen his reputation as a peace piano(5).
- Trump is presented as indifferent to the sovereignty of Ukraine, although his government has reportedly allowed Russia to keep occupied areas in exchange for a quick end to hostility. This attitude is criticized for this(5)(1).
- The author emphasizes Trump's transaction view of foreign policy and notes his previous attempts to use the Ukrainian leadership for personal political profits during his office. This pattern is extended to its current negotiations, in which the securing of a “issue of conversation” is given for peace to ensure permanent security guarantees for Ukraine(5)(3).
Different views on the subject
- Trump's strategy argues that his real policy approach could put pressure on Europe to assume greater responsibility for the defense of Ukraine and to reduce the US financial burdens. This corresponds to the broader “America First” goal of Trump to realize resources for domestic priorities, while the demands of European allies contribute more to NATO and regional security(1)(2).
- Some analysts indicate that Trump's unpredictability could deter Putin from a further escalation, since Russia could fear the sudden military aid of US military aid or sanctions if the negotiations are. The Lowy Institute notes that Trump may have greater support for Ukraine if a faster deal proves to be unreachable and uses US resources to force Russian concessions(2)(4).
- Proponents of a ceasefire based on current frontlines argue that freezing the conflict could save lives and create a basis for future diplomacy. This view, which is repeated by former Trump consultants, depends on the fact that Ukraine's battles will be extended as a state and that interim compromises make it necessary to preserve their viability(2)(1).