A month in Donald Trump's second term as president of the United States, it has been clear throughout the world that the United States foreign policy approach is experiencing a significant change.
Since the end of World War II, the United States Alliance with the West has remained stable, but as it evolves, those who study history say that the world order we have met for 80 years could be established for a seismic change .
“Clearly, there is a deep concern throughout the world that this is a retirement from leadership (by the United States) to a more transactional and unilateralist approach to international relations,” said John Blaxland, international security professor in international security at The National University of Australia.
“This is such an unknown territory; None of us have lived something like this before. “
Many European leaders were surprised earlier this month when in an abrasing speech at the Munich Security Conference, the American vice president JD Vance told the audience “there is a new sheriff in the city under the leadership of Donald Trump” and warned Governments that internal threats to democracy, as are electoral cancellations and censorship, are greater threats for their countries that external antagonists such as China and Russia.
“The threat that worries me the most about in front of Europe is not Russia, it is not China, it is not any other external actor,” said Vance, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.
“What worries me is the threat from the inside: the withdrawal of Europe of some of its most fundamental values, shared values with the United States of America.”
Days later, Trump seemed to reverse the course on the support of the country to Ukraine, adopting a hostile rhetoric reminiscent of erroneous information frequently shared by Russian President Vladimir Putin
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During a press conference before, when he was asked why Ukraine was not included in the conversations of Russia, Trump, he accused Ukraine, not only to avoid a negotiated ending in the war but also to begin.
“Today I heard: 'Oh, well, we weren't invited. 'Well, you've been there for three years. You should have finished it three years (ago). You should never have started it, ”he said.
The historian Andrew Gawthorpe says that recent weeks have been a “tremendously significant moment” with serious implications for the rest of the world.
“For the first time there is a crack in the Western Alliance,” said Professor of the University of Leiden in an interview with Global News from his home in Leiden, Netherlands.
“It certainly seems that Trump's dream is to join Vladimir Putin to re -draw the security order in Europe, redrawing international order in Europe.”
Gawthorpe says you would have to return in the late 1940s to find a comparably significant historical time.
“It is after World War II that the United States accepted that it was going to play an outstanding role in the defense of this world order and the defense of security in Europe as well. That was when the United States sent troops permanently to Europe for the first time. “He said.
“Trump wants to undo this order. He believes that they have been decades and decades of the rest of the world taking advantage of the United States. “
What this will mean for the international community has become the sudden approach of academics and governments around the world.
“I think everyone is looking for a plan B at this time,” said Blaxland.
“Everyone is trying to think, 'ok, now what?'”
Donald Heflin, main member of the University of Tufts and former American diplomat, believes that institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the NATO Alliance are strong enough to survive in the next four years.
“(United States) is a very important player. Are we indispensable or these alliances could collect and do the job? I think the last. I think they will survive, ”said Heflin.
“Although there could be some bad things that happen in the next three or four years and it would be great if these institutions were stronger during that time to deal with them.”
Heflin believes that protecting these institutions and alliances is also the best for the United States.
“It has been a much more peaceful world, much more stable and is due to the hard work of all member countries in those institutions.”
Both Blaxland and Gawthorpe say that a weakened western alliance would be seen as an opportunity for China to expand its sphere of influence worldwide.
“This is a great opening for China,” Blaxland said. “This is an opportunity for China to say: 'Look, America, what is it? What do they support us? Beginning? Soft power? Moral authority? International rules? All have been thrown into the air. “
“We are going to live in a world with three great superpowers in the United States, Russia and China,” Gawthorpe said.
“We are going to see more and more that small countries do not have their voices heard and that are bent to the will of these superpowers.”
Countries like Canada, Gawthorpe suspicious, will have few letters to play.
“International rules and laws and institutions that gave them voice and influenced them in global affairs, replaced by this rule of strong men,” Gawthorpe said.
“I think we are going to a world of much greater instability and unpredictability. (Saying) We head towards war is too pessimistic, but we can say that the situation worldwide is becoming much more controversial. “
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