MEXICO CITY — Mexican authorities have repeatedly promised to welcome back their citizens if the new Trump administration continues to threaten large-scale deportations.
“It is our commitment,” said President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has outlined plans to increase aid to millions of Mexican citizens who may be deported from the United States — and to increase aid to those who are forced back into Mexico .
What is less clear and more problematic, however, is how Mexico's leaders will react if, as expected, President-elect Donald Trump pressures them to also accept deportees from other countries – either asylum seekers who are immediately sent back from the border or to the United States living migrant states.
“This will be one of the first burdens on Mexico,” said Eunice Rendón, a columnist and expert on migration issues. “Donald Trump will want to send people who are not Mexicans back to Mexico, especially those from countries like Venezuela with which the United States does not have diplomatic relations.”
Mexico is not legally required to take back non-citizens, even if many traveled through Mexico to reach U.S. territory. But in the past the country has caved in the face of threats of tariffs that could cripple its economy.
Trump is again promising massive tariffs unless Mexico – which sends more than 80% of its exports north of the border – capitulates to his demands. Experts say this leaves Mexico with little leverage to fight back.
In December, Sheinbaum said her administration preferred that Washington send non-Mexicans directly back to their home countries, leaving Mexico out. But she recently suggested that Mexico might cooperate with the United States in accepting some third-country nationals.
Trump's next administration is reportedly considering reviving two of his controversial programs — known as Remain in Mexico and Title 42 — that sent tens of thousands of non-Mexican asylum seekers detained at the southwest border back to Mexico. As part of their stay in Mexico, they were sent back to await appearances in U.S. courts. Under Title 42, a public health measure put into effect during the COVID-19 pandemic, migrants were immediately sent back to Mexico without court dates.
Many of the asylum seekers became victims of crime and became a burden on the Mexican cities and towns in which they were housed. The Biden administration ended both programs.
During Trump's first term, Mexico agreed to accept non-Mexican deportees, mostly Spanish speakers from Central and South America and Cuba, as well as Haitians.
Sheinbaum said this month that Mexican officials could work with their U.S. counterparts “through various mechanisms.” They and their representatives have not made clear what terms Mexico would seek. But analysts say they will undoubtedly push for caps on the number and nationality of deportees.
“I can imagine Mexico agreeing to accept some third-country nationals apprehended at the border and take them back,” said Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group. “This has already happened.”
After Biden ended Title 42, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 expelled migrants per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela – countries that pose a challenge to direct deportations from the United States for political and other reasons. This agreement remains in effect.
“The really difficult thing for Mexico would be if the Trump administration tried to force Mexico to accept Venezuelans and others living inland in the U.S. and threatened them with deportation,” Isacson said. “That would be difficult. Mexico is in a really difficult situation.”
Once the president-elect takes office on Monday, experts expect a flood of regulations regarding the southwest border and deportations – cornerstones of Trump's campaign performance.
Republican members of Congress are already trying to codify remaining in Mexico into U.S. law. Critics called the policy inhumane to those fleeing persecution, but supporters said it was an effective deterrent against bogus asylum claims. And Trump advisers, many of whom have pushed Title 42 for years, appear interested in reintroducing the measure.
Whatever happens on Inauguration Day, thousands of U.S.-bound migrants in Mexico are watching closely.
They are caught between heightened Mexican enforcement measures – authorities there reported record detentions of more than a million immigrants last year, many of whom were sent back to southern Mexico – and a Biden administration policy that in June raised legal standards for Raised asylum applications and blocked access to those crossing the border illegally.
Few migrants appear to view staying in Mexico as a viable option.
“We urgently need to get to the United States – everyone says it will be harder once Trump gets there,” said Daisy Fernández, 24, from Venezuela, one of several hundred migrants camped outside a bus station in Mexico City. “We now have many friends and family in the United States who tell us that once you cross the border, you can easily find a job. Your life will immediately change for the better.”
Fernández stood his ground when told that Trump was considering deporting Venezuelans and other non-Mexicans back to Mexico.
“We definitely don't want to be in Mexico – we don't care about that,” said Fernández, who like other migrants spoke of mistreatment by Mexican immigration officials, police and criminals as they passed through the country.
“In Mexico there are many problems and no work. We want to reach the United States whether Trump wants it or not,” she said. “If they push us back to Mexico, we will continue trying to get to the United States.”
She and her partner said they arrived in Mexico City last week after a two-month overland hike. They planned to head north before Inauguration Day.
Both requested appointments with U.S. authorities through CPB One, a Biden administration app program that has facilitated entry into the U.S. for nearly a million asylum seekers waiting in Mexico. However, it can take more than six months to get an appointment.
“We submitted the application, but we don’t have an appointment,” Fernández said. “Anyway, I don’t think it makes much of a difference because we heard they were going to cancel CBP the same day Trump becomes president.”
Osmar Villa, 31, who worked as a restaurant worker in Cuba, also planned to leave the camp and try to enter the United States before Trump takes office.
“I will try as often as possible to get to the United States and build a life there,” Villa said. “Staying in Mexico is not an option for me.”
Special correspondent Cecilia Sanchez Vidal contributed to this report.