When pointing to its opening to a high fire, Ukraine has given the Kremlin a difficult challenge at a time when the Russian army has the advantage in the war: should Moscow accept a truce and abandon the hopes of obtaining new profits, or should I reject the offer and risk of derailing a cautious relaunch with Washington?
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly ruled out a temporary break in hostilities, saying that he would only benefit Ukraine and his western allies by allowing them to replenish their arsenals. He has insisted that Moscow wants an integral agreement that guarantees a lasting agreement.
The Kremlin cautiously responded to the news of Ukraine that accepted the truce proposed by the United States during Tuesday's conversations in Saudi Arabia, saying that he needs to know the details of the discussions before expressing his opinion.
The careful approach reflects Putin's awareness about the risk that a forceful rejection of the supply can alter tentative efforts to normalize the ties of united Russia.
Observers say that instead of absolute rejection, Putin will probably propose to link the truce with certain conditions that would protect Moscow's interests.
Why would Kremlin oppose a high fire?
The Russian army celebrated the Battlefield initiative last year, obtaining slow but constant profits along several sections of the front line of 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). The rhythm of Russian advances accelerated in autumn, when Moscow's forces captured the greatest amount of territory since the beginning of the war.
Ukraine has tried to resume the initiative with a surprise raid in the Kursk region of Russia that began in August, seeking to distract Moscow's forces from their offensive in eastern Ukraine and obtain profits that could potentially be exchanged for the areas occupied by Russia in the peace conversations. However, the incursion has diverted Ukrainian resources to defend the Donetsk region in the east and could not stop the Russian advances there. Now the Ukrainian forces are about to lose their last head of the remaining bridge in Kursk under the worst part of a rapid Russian counteroffensive.
Moscow also devastated Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missile and drone waves, destroying much of its energy generation capacity.
Putin has repeatedly said a temporary detention of hostilities at a time when Russian forces firmly hold the initiative would only allow the exhausted Ukrainian troops to rest and rearil.
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“As for the settlement of the situation, I would like to emphasize that it should not be directed to a brief truce, a kind of rest to regroup troops and rearma to continue the conflict, but a long -term peace,” Putin said.
Moscow has made it clear that I would not accept troops from NATO members as monitors under a possible peace agreement.
Putin's key objectives are still what he declared when he launched the large -scale invasion on February 24, 2022: Ukraine renounces NATO, sharply cut his army and protects the Russian language and culture to keep the country in the orbit of Moscow. In addition to that, he now wants Kyiv to withdraw his forces from the four regions that Moscow has seized but does not control completely.
Russian officials have also said that any possible peace agreement should involve Russian assets that do not want in the West and raising other sanctions of the United States and Europe. The Trump administration has put a possible relief of sanctions on the table.
Together with that, Putin has repeatedly emphasized the need to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis”, a reference to Kremlin's demand to reverse a military accumulation of NATO near Russian borders that describes as a great threat to its safety.
The Kremlin leader has argued that the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose term expired last year, lacks legitimacy to sign a peace agreement. Kyiv argues that the elections are impossible to keep in the middle of a war. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has talked about the need for Ukraine to celebrate an election in comments that echoed Moscow's opinion.
What else could Moscow demand?
Some observers noticed that instead of an absolute rejection of the proposed truce, Putin could present several conditions.
The commentator Pro-Kremlin, Sergei Markov, suggested that Moscow could accept a truce if Ukraine allies stop Kyiv weapons supplies. The United States said he resumed arms shipments and the exchange of intelligence with kyiv after he agreed on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia.
“Russia could say 'yes, but' to an offer of high fire, accepting a 30 -day truce with the condition that an embargo is imposed on the supplies of weapons to Ukraine,” Markov wrote.
Another desire for Moscow is a presidential election in Ukraine, which would be possible after Ukraine raises martial law.
“Peace would allow Russia to influence Ukrainian politics and use peaceful means to guarantee friendly relationships,” Markov said.
The foreign policy expert based in Moscow, Alexei Naumov, also predicted that Russia would probably accept the offer of high fire if it leads to an election in Ukraine.
“There is a paradox in these conversations and peace initiatives: Ukraine and Russia are competing for the attention of Donald Trump and seeking to improve their positions with their help,” Naumov said in a comment.
Sam Greene, from the Washington -based European Policies Analysis Center, said it would be difficult to imagine Putin by saying a “not” categorical to the proposal of Alto El Fuego, and added that the leader of the Kremlin “has already achieved in some way more through this negotiation process … Then he achieved in a long time on the battlefield”, describing a halt of the United States in the United States and the conversation about the sanctions in the big sanctions such as “Big Wins of” Big Wins.
Putin's statements against a temporary truce simply mean that Russia “is not likely to accept fire without extracting several things on the road,” Greene said.
“The type of high fire in which it might be interested clearly is not the type of high fire that Ukrainians or Europeans could be interested, although Americans can be more malleable in that,” he added.
“Moscow has all the reasons to believe that … If this process lands anywhere, it will land in a place that is more or less in Russian terms, provided that the process is conducted by Washington,” Greene said.
& Copy 2025 the Canadian press